Amazon and Intel plunge in premarket trading, Nasdaq futures fall more than 2%
U.S. Markets Evening Brief | Friday, 30 October 2026 (Hong Kong time; cash market close is for Thursday, 29 October, U.S. Eastern time; futures and premarket data as of approximately 21:15 Hong Kong time on 30 October)

On Thursday, the S&P 500 fell 0.30% to 7720.39 points, the Dow fell 0.25% to 52342.56 points, and the Nasdaq fell 1.38% to 26184.72 points, while the equal-weight S&P ETF (RSP) rose 1.20% to 220.04 dollars (Reuters). In Friday premarket trading, S&P 500 futures fell about 1.1%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell about 2.4%–2.7%, and Dow futures were roughly flat (Reuters). The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was about 4.91%, Brent crude was about 116.7 dollars per barrel, spot gold was about 3970 dollars per ounce, below 4000 dollars, and the dollar index was about 101.77 (Reuters) (Reuters).

Market theme
The core of Friday's evening brief can be summed up in one sentence: The market is not waiting for the open so much as waiting to see whether the “cash-flow reckoning” spreads from technology stocks into a market-wide selloff—Dow futures were roughly flat in premarket trading while Nasdaq futures fell more than 2%, indicating that money is still rotating rather than retreating across the board. Amazon fell about 7% and Intel about 25% in premarket trading, taking the logic behind Alphabet's Thursday plunge a step further: the “good numbers” that should be there, such as cloud growth and data-center revenue, are no longer enough; cash-flow commitments for the next quarter are the grading standard (Reuters). Meanwhile, an in-line employment cost report did not change that narrative: moderate wage inflation leaves oil prices to determine whether the Federal Reserve might raise rates again in December—with Brent approaching 117 dollars, stagflation concerns remain the most uncomfortable backdrop before the open.

I. Premarket: Nasdaq futures lead declines as Dow futures hold flat; the divergence is itself a signal

  • Nasdaq 100 futures fell more than 2% at one point in Friday premarket trading, S&P 500 futures fell about 1%, and Dow futures were roughly flat. Reuters said Amazon and Intel could together lose about 300 billion dollars in market value in premarket trading, while losses in Nasdaq 100 market value could approach 950 billion dollars (Reuters). The divergence between a steady Dow and a sharply falling Nasdaq shows that this is not about the U.S. economy failing, but about the AI bill weighing on technology stocks—sectors such as energy and healthcare are taking over as support.
  • The U.S. employment cost index (ECI) rose 0.8% quarter on quarter in the third quarter, in line with expectations, after a previous rise of 0.9%. It rose 3.4% year on year, matching the increase for the year ended in June; wages rose 0.7% and benefit costs rose 0.9% (Reuters) (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). An in-line ECI is the best “neutral outcome”: it gave the Fed no new ammunition for rate hikes, nor did it free up expectations for cuts—so earnings, not data, remain in control of premarket trading.
  • The Bank of Japan held steady on Friday and announced a substantial acceleration in ETF sales. Selling continued in Asian trading, with South Korea's KOSPI down more than 3% and the Nikkei down about 2%–3% (Reuters). Asia's decline is not about local earnings but the same AI supply chain: Asian chip, equipment and memory manufacturers ultimately have to deliver on the capital spending bills of major U.S. cloud companies.

II. Bonds, the dollar and commodities: U.S. Treasuries on track for their largest monthly gain in nearly three years, while oil rebounds on Middle East news

  • Friday's bond market signal is clearer than that of equities: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to about 4.91%, down around 37 basis points in October and on track for its largest monthly decline since December 2023; the 2-year yield fell to about 4.57%. Reuters said the buying reflected both a flight to safety after the technology-stock selloff and markets pricing in fewer future rate hikes after the Fed held steady on Wednesday (Reuters).
  • Oil prices continued to rise on Friday: Brent was about 116.7 dollars per barrel, while WTI rose more than 2% to about 104.25 dollars per barrel; Brent was on track for a fourth consecutive monthly gain (Reuters). Oil is rising on supply risks, not demand: the aftermath of Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities and an attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz remains priced in. The higher oil goes, the harder it is to rule out entirely a case for the Fed to raise rates in December.
  • In currencies, risk aversion lifted the yen and Swiss franc. The yen traded around 157.20–157.80 per dollar, the euro around 1.1194–1.1200 dollars, and the dollar index was about 101.77 (Reuters). Dollar weakness here is not a signal of a deteriorating U.S. economy; technology stocks fell and money moved first into bonds and safe-haven currencies. Gold did not benefit in tandem, however: spot gold fell below 4000 dollars, indicating that U.S. Treasuries, not gold, were the first choice for this wave of safe-haven flows.

III. Individual stocks and sector moves (including earnings): Amazon and Intel take the premarket baton as oil and drug companies provide support

  • Amazon fell about 7% in premarket trading. Third-quarter revenue was 201.9 billion dollars, up 12% year on year but below expectations; AWS revenue was 46 billion dollars, up 39% year on year. The company maintained its full-year capital spending plan of about 220 billion dollars, while free cash flow over the past 12 months was negative 42.4 billion dollars (Reuters). Reuters reported further on Friday that Amazon also signaled capital spending would continue to rise next year (Reuters). Even 39% AWS growth could not save the share price, showing that the grading standard has changed: cloud growth is expected; negative cash flow is what gets punished.
  • Intel fell about 25% in premarket trading. Third-quarter revenue was 16.5 billion dollars, up 21% year on year, while data-center and AI revenue was 7.3 billion dollars, up 78%. But its fourth-quarter revenue guidance was only 15 billion–16 billion dollars, well below market expectations. The company also warned of cash burn this year, citing factors including a weaker PC market, manufacturing bottlenecks and capacity expansion spending (Reuters). Intel's story is harsher than Amazon's: the quarter's numbers were decent, but guidance fell short across the board—the market now rewards not how well a company performed over the past three months, but what it is willing to promise for the next three.
  • Energy and healthcare stood on the other side of the move. ExxonMobil and Chevron both beat third-quarter expectations, with adjusted earnings per share of 4.23 dollars and 5.28 dollars respectively; their shares rose about 2% and about 1% respectively in premarket trading. Refining profits exceeded upstream earnings for the first time in at least six years (Reuters (republished)). AbbVie reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 3.82 dollars and revenue of 17.4 billion dollars, both above expectations, and raised its full-year earnings guidance to 13.95–13.99 dollars. Skyrizi sales were 5.78 billion dollars, up 22.7% year on year (Reuters (republished)). The oil and drug companies' beats explain why Dow futures could hold flat: tonight's market is not a broad collapse but a rotation in which cash-burning AI stocks fall and cash-flow stocks rise.
  • Reddit fell about 23% and Pinterest about 8% in premarket trading. Reddit warned that, if search referrals continue to decline, fourth-quarter daily active visitors could fall by a low-double-digit percentage from about 130 million; search referrals fell by an average of more than 1 million per week in October, which the company attributed to Google's AI search features (Reuters (republished)). The declines in Reddit and in Amazon and Intel are two sides of the same thing: AI is both consuming big companies' money and taking traffic from smaller companies.

IV. AI news: cash burn remains the main theme, while financing becomes a second battleground

  • Microsoft is a rare counterexample in this selloff: its third-quarter cloud business beat expectations, free cash flow was positive, its shares fell only 0.2% on Thursday, and its 25 billion-dollar bond offering was oversubscribed (Reuters). The contrast between Microsoft and Alphabet and Amazon is itself this week's earnings-season grading standard: within the same AI narrative, positive cash flow is spared and negative cash flow is heavily punished.
  • Another underlying theme this week is financing: Meta previously announced plans to raise up to about 95 billion dollars through a stock offering to fund AI infrastructure, and raised its full-year capital spending guidance to 135 billion–145 billion dollars (CNBC (republished)). When even the most cash-rich companies need to issue shares to pay their AI bills, the market's question is no longer whether there is demand for AI, but how much external financing will be needed to sustain this buildout cycle.
  • Reuters' Friday premarket report also noted that the S&P 500 and Dow remained on track for gains in October, while the Nasdaq could end a two-month winning streak (Reuters). The monthly divergence shows that October's story is not yet finished: resilience remains at the index level, but the cash-flow divide within technology stocks is already irreversible.

V. Forward calendar (Hong Kong time)

  • 30 October (Friday), 21:45: U.S. Chicago PMI for October (market forecast: 54.8; previous: 58.8); San Francisco Fed President Daly and St. Louis Fed President Musalem are due to speak today (Reuters).
  • 2 November (Monday): U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for October; Apple and Palantir report earnings after the close (Reuters).
  • 3 November (Tuesday): U.S. midterm elections; 5 November (Thursday): Bank of England decision (Reuters).

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