OPEC+ holds steady as Apple leads Monday’s earnings reports

OPEC+ holds steady as Apple leads Monday’s earnings reports
US stocks midday brief | Sunday, 1 November 2026 (Hong Kong time; US and European markets are closed on Sunday, and stock index futures will open at 07:00 Monday Hong Kong time. This edition is anchored to Friday’s close and new developments over the weekend.)

On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 1.82% to 7580.07 points, the Dow fell 1.09% to 51770.31 points, the Nasdaq fell 2.86% to 25437.00 points, and the equal-weight S&P ETF (RSP) fell 0.79% to $218.31 (The Wall Street Journal). The 10-year US Treasury yield was about 4.93%, WTI crude was about $104.12 a barrel, gold futures were about $3885.70 an ounce, and the US dollar index was broadly flat at about 101.9 (The Wall Street Journal) (Reuters). US and European spot markets are closed on Sunday and stock index futures have yet to open, so no Sunday intraday quotes were available for this edition.

Main market theme
The only genuinely settled new variable over the weekend was oil: OPEC+ agreed in principle to leave its December production targets unchanged, putting one supply-side uncertainty on hold for now, but not eliminating the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices. Brent had already risen to $117.64 a barrel on Friday, and oil itself remains one of the variables for Monday’s opening to digest. The main test for equities has not changed: Monday brings the October ISM manufacturing PMI first, followed by Apple and Palantir earnings after the close, with midterm election voting on Tuesday (Reuters) (Barron’s). In other words, at Monday’s open the market must price three things at once: whether oil will keep pressuring inflation expectations, whether Apple can withstand the technology selloff, and how long policy uncertainty will persist ahead of the election. Any one of them going off course could spread Friday’s “reckoning within technology” into broader volatility.

I. Futures and Europe: Closed Sunday; technology also weighed on Europe Friday

• Stock index futures will open at 18:00 Sunday evening US Eastern time, or 07:00 Monday Hong Kong time; until then, this edition has no verifiable futures quotes (Investor's Business Daily). The initial move after futures open deserves separate attention: it reflects the net direction of weekend news, rather than a simple continuation of Friday’s closing sentiment.
• European markets also diverged at Friday’s close: the pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.36% to 646.75 points, Germany’s DAX fell 0.85% to 25818.21 points, France’s CAC 40 was broadly flat, and Britain’s FTSE 100 edged up 0.07% to 10729.78 points (European market close roundup). Reuters reported during Friday’s session that European technology stocks had fallen as much as 2%, ASML was down about 5%, and STMicroelectronics, BE Semiconductor Industries and Infineon were down between 3.3% and 4.8%. The trigger was again concern over AI spending, rekindled by Amazon and Intel earnings (Reuters, republished). Europe’s signal matches that of US stocks: this is not a story about one country, but the same questioning of the AI bill being priced simultaneously on both sides of the Atlantic.
• Preliminary eurozone GDP grew 0.4% quarter on quarter in the third quarter, slowing from 0.6% in the second quarter, and rose 1.3% year on year (European market close roundup). The slowdown itself was no surprise, but it came on the same day that oil hit a six-month high and European technology stocks fell, leaving Monday’s European open with a less than straightforward test as well.

II. Bonds, the dollar and commodities: OPEC+ pauses, but the oil risk premium remains

• Reuters, citing sources familiar with the matter, reported that seven core OPEC+ members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman—agreed in principle to keep December production targets unchanged, in line with market expectations of no further production policy adjustment in the fourth quarter, with talks shifting to 2027 quotas. The group completed the phased unwinding of cuts of 1.65 million barrels per day in September; another layer of cuts of about 2 million barrels per day, covering most members through the end of 2026, remains in place (Reuters). “Agreed in principle” is not a formal decision, and the wording leaves room for change: on Monday the market must establish whether geopolitical news could reopen that consensus.
• Friday’s divergence between bonds and commodities remains the backdrop for Monday: the 10-year US Treasury yield fell 6 basis points to 4.928%, the 2-year yield fell 7.5 basis points to 4.579%, and the 10-year yield fell about 37 basis points over October as a whole. Safe-haven buying offset inflation concerns brought by oil’s return above $100 (The Wall Street Journal). Brent futures for December rose 2.4% Friday to $117.64 a barrel, briefly touching $118 intraday; WTI rose 2.08% to $104.12 a barrel (Reuters). OPEC+ holding steady addresses whether supply will change again; it cannot resolve whether risks in the Strait of Hormuz will intensify again. The latter was the direct driver of oil’s 2.4% rise on Friday.
• Spot gold fell 3.5% Friday to about $3881 an ounce, its lowest since October 2025; silver fell about 6% and dropped below $50 an ounce (Reuters). The pattern of gold and US Treasuries falling on the same day remains one to watch Monday: if oil stays high and selling resumes, Monday’s trading will offer a new answer as to whether gold is sold first as a source of liquidity or returns to its safe-haven role.

III. Individual stocks and sector moves, including earnings: Apple and Palantir Monday, AMD Tuesday

• Apple reports earnings after Monday’s close. The market expects earnings per share to rise about 8% year on year to $1.99, and revenue to rise 11% year on year to about $113 billion. Investors will closely watch iPhone demand and the high-margin services business; Apple has risen 28% year to date, leading the Magnificent Seven (Saxo). Ahead of Palantir’s after-close report Monday, JPMorgan initiated coverage with an overweight rating and a $262 price target for December 2027, and placed it on its “positive catalyst watch” list. Morgan Stanley maintained an equal-weight rating and a $205 target, saying third-quarter revenue should beat expectations (Barron’s). For the same company, two price targets nearly a third apart show that Monday’s after-hours debate is not whether growth is good, but whether it is worth the price—the same logic behind Friday’s Intel-style plunge.
• Friday’s sector divergence remains a reference point: Intel plunged 28.6% to $65.76, its biggest one-day decline since 1974, because its fourth-quarter revenue guidance was far below expectations. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 7.2%, Nvidia fell 4.2%, and AMD fell 10.9% (The Wall Street Journal). Energy remained the exception: ExxonMobil and Chevron both reported better-than-expected third-quarter profits and rose 2.2% and 2.8%, respectively (The Wall Street Journal). AMD’s after-close earnings Tuesday are the next stop for the chip chain: if AMD’s guidance is also cautious, the reckoning in chip stocks is not over; if it steadies sentiment, investors may finally distinguish between the “bill” and “demand” again.
• The midterm election campaign has entered its final stretch: more than 51 million people have voted early, exceeding the early-voting total for the entire 2022 cycle. Reuters’ weekend reporting emphasized that the election will determine whether Democrats can take control of Congress from Republicans, while the outlook for AI regulation is one of the variables the market is watching (Reuters) (Reuters). Record early voting indicates participation, not the result. On Monday, the market can price only “uncertainty lasting at least another day,” not the election’s winner.

IV. AI news: Monday’s AI test shifts from “how much is being spent” to “whether it can sell”

• On 31 October, Apple announced a partnership with Alibaba to integrate Qwen into Apple Intelligence in mainland China. The related features will debut on 4 November with the iOS 27.3 developer beta and roll out broadly with the official release in December. Users in China will be able to access Qwen’s text and image understanding and content generation capabilities directly through Siri, writing tools and visual intelligence, while the new generation of Siri AI unveiled at this year’s WWDC will not initially be available in mainland China (Wallstreetcn, republished). This theme points in the opposite direction to the “AI bill”: it concerns whether AI can help sell phones. The strength of China demand and services in Apple’s Monday earnings will determine whether this theme can offset pressure from the bill.
• Friday’s lesson is already clear: Reuters noted that the combined capital spending of the four largest hyperscalers over the past 12 months accounted for more than a third of total capital spending by S&P 500 constituents, and the share could continue to rise. Capital Economics believes investor anxiety over “how much is being spent and how” will increase when this capital spending boom begins to depend partly on external financing (Reuters). Apple and Palantir must therefore answer more than a revenue question on Monday: they must also solve the arithmetic between capital spending and cash flow. Friday’s market showed that a poor answer, combined with slightly weaker guidance, will be severely punished.

V. Upcoming calendar (Hong Kong time)

• 2 November (Monday), 07:00: US stock index futures open (18:00 Sunday evening US Eastern time); 23:00: US October ISM manufacturing PMI; after the close (early 3 November Hong Kong time): Apple and Palantir report earnings (Investor's Business Daily) (Barron’s) (Saxo).
• 3 November (Tuesday): US midterm election voting; AMD, Amgen and Pfizer report earnings after the close (Reuters) (Barron’s).
• 4 November (Wednesday): US October ISM services PMI; McDonald’s and Qualcomm report earnings; Apple Intelligence for China opens for testing with the iOS developer beta on the same day (Barron’s) (Wallstreetcn, republished).
• 5 November (Thursday): Airbnb reports earnings (Barron’s).
• 6 November (Friday): US October nonfarm payrolls report (Bureau of Labor Statistics), the week’s key economic release; Moderna reports earnings (Barron’s).
• Note: The US has entered standard time. Next week, regular US stock trading hours correspond to 22:30 through 05:00 the next day in Hong Kong, with the open one hour later than during daylight saving time. The Sunday evening stock index futures open corresponds to 07:00 Monday in Hong Kong.