Gulf markets diverge on election eve; Apple reports Monday

Gulf markets diverge on election eve; Apple reports Monday
US Stocks Evening Brief | Sunday, 1 November 2026 (Hong Kong time; cash-market closes are from Friday, 30 October, US Eastern time. US and European cash markets are closed Sunday, and stock-index futures open Monday at 07:00 Hong Kong time. This edition is anchored to Friday’s close and Sunday’s new developments.)

On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 1.82% to 7580.07 points, the Dow fell 1.09% to 51770.31 points, the Nasdaq fell 2.86% to 25437.00 points, and the equal-weight S&P ETF (RSP) fell 0.79% to $218.31 (The Wall Street Journal). The 10-year US Treasury yield was about 4.93%, WTI crude about $104.12 per barrel, gold futures about $3885.70 per ounce, and the US dollar index was roughly unchanged at about 101.9 (The Wall Street Journal) (Reuters). No new Sunday US stock cash-market or futures quotes were available for verification; this edition did not obtain Sunday intraday quotes.

Market theme
The genuinely new market action during the day Sunday was in the Gulf, not US stocks: Saudi stocks fell 0.8% while Qatari stocks surged 4.6%. Under the same cloud of whether fighting might resume after the election, the two markets moved in opposite directions. That suggests markets are trading the uncertainty of the post-election window itself, rather than one definitive war scenario, as well as differences in countries’ ability to hedge Strait of Hormuz risks. Meanwhile, talks continued in Doha, Trump was making his final campaign push, and OPEC+’s Sunday meeting held supply steady for now. Taken together, the first question at Monday’s open remains the net direction of three issues: whether oil will keep pressuring inflation expectations, whether Apple’s after-hours earnings can arrest the technology selloff, and how long pre-election policy uncertainty will persist (Reuters) (Reuters) (Reuters). Friday’s lesson is already clear: the market is no longer punishing growth that is too slow, but spending that is too high and payback that is too slow. The Nasdaq fell 2.86% on the day and about 2% for the week, while the equal-weight index fell only 0.79% on the day. This remains a reckoning concentrated in technology stocks, rather than a surrender across the whole market.

I. Sunday developments: Gulf stocks diverge as Doha talks continue

• Reuters reported Sunday that Gulf stocks fell that day as investors remained wary of the risk that the US and Iran could resume hostilities after Tuesday’s midterm elections. Saudi Arabia’s benchmark fell 0.8% to 9838 points, with nearly all constituents lower, while Egypt’s blue-chip index fell 1.9% (Reuters). The same-day declines in Saudi Arabia and Egypt show that concern about the post-election window is regional, rather than confined to one market.
• Qatar was the exception: its benchmark surged 4.6% to 9575 points, its biggest one-day percentage gain in more than eight years. Qatar National Bank rose 3%, and Industries Qatar, an industrial group linked to QatarEnergy, gained 7.9% (Reuters). Reuters said factors supporting sentiment included QatarEnergy securing long-term liquefied natural gas supplies from the US and other sources to guard against disruption to exports through the Strait of Hormuz, and S&P affirming Qatar’s AA sovereign rating with a stable outlook, citing ample liquidity and fiscal and external asset buffers (Reuters). Qatar’s rally does not mean risk has disappeared; it means those with stronger hedges are being rewarded first. That is the logic oil and safe-haven assets will continue to test on Monday.
• Diplomacy continued Sunday too. Reuters cited an informed official as saying Iranian negotiators had met Qatari mediators in Doha for a third consecutive day on Sunday, aiming to advance an end to the war between the US and Israel and Iran. Qatar was coordinating regularly with Washington on the talks. Trump has said he will launch no new attacks on Iran before election voting and that talks with Tehran have been productive, but has not ruled out further military action after the vote (Reuters). US Secretary of State Rubio said Saturday that Trump had not decided whether to launch new strikes, but preferred a diplomatic resolution; Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei ordered the armed forces Saturday to prepare for any attack (Reuters). “Talking, but no deal; no attack, but another has not been ruled out”: that itself is the source of oil’s risk premium ahead of Monday’s open.
• The election campaign has entered its final 48 hours. Reuters reported that Trump traveled to Iowa and Kansas on Sunday to campaign, with Senate races in the two farm-belt states tighter than expected. A Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Trump’s approval among rural Americans fell to a new low of 45% in October. More than 52 million people had voted early, a midterm record above the nearly 46 million before Election Day in 2022 (Reuters). All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are up for election Tuesday; Republicans currently hold the Senate by 53 to 47 and have a narrow House majority (Reuters). Record early voting indicates participation, not the result. On Monday, markets can price only at least one more day of uncertainty, not the election’s winner.

II. Bonds, the dollar and commodities: OPEC+ holds steady; oil’s risk premium remains

• Reuters reported Sunday that OPEC+ producers were expected to keep their December output targets unchanged at their Sunday meeting. Seven core members had already agreed in principle to unchanged production the following month, in line with expectations of no further fourth-quarter production policy adjustment, while the focus of negotiations shifted to 2027 quotas. The group completed the phased unwinding of cuts of 1.65 million barrels per day in September; a separate layer of cuts of about 2 million barrels per day, covering most members through the end of 2026, remains in place (Reuters). Sunday’s online meeting began at 12:00 GMT (20:00 Hong Kong time). As of publication, no formal decision differing from the agreement in principle had been announced. An agreement in principle is not a formal decision; the wording leaves room for change. On Monday, markets must establish whether geopolitical news will reopen that consensus.
• Friday’s divergence between bonds and commodities remains the backdrop for Monday. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 6 basis points to 4.928%, the 2-year yield fell 7.5 basis points to 4.579%, and the 10-year yield fell about 37 basis points over October. Safe-haven buying offset inflation concerns from oil’s return above $100 (The Wall Street Journal). Brent December futures rose 2.4% Friday to $117.64 per barrel, briefly touching $118 intraday; WTI rose 2.08% to $104.12 per barrel (Reuters). OPEC+ holding steady addresses whether supply will change again; it cannot resolve whether Strait of Hormuz risks will intensify. The latter was the direct driver of Friday’s 2.4% rise in oil.
• Spot gold fell 3.5% Friday to about $3881 per ounce, its lowest since October 2025; silver fell about 6% and slipped below $50 per ounce (Reuters). The scenario in which gold and Treasuries fell on the same day remains worth watching Monday. If oil stays high and selling resumes, Monday’s trading will provide a new answer as to whether gold is sold first for liquidity or returns to its safe-haven role.

III. Stocks and sectors, including earnings: Apple and Palantir on Monday, AMD on Tuesday

• Apple reports after Monday’s close. The market expects earnings per share to rise about 8% year over year to $1.99, and revenue to rise 11% to about $113 billion. Investors will closely watch iPhone demand and the high-margin services business; Apple is up 28% this year, leading the Magnificent Seven (Saxo). Ahead of Palantir’s Monday after-hours earnings, JPMorgan initiated coverage with an overweight rating and a $262 price target for December 2027, adding it to its “positive catalyst watch” list. Morgan Stanley maintained an equal-weight rating and a $205 target, saying third-quarter revenue should beat expectations (Barron’s). Two price targets for the same company differ by nearly thirty percent. The debate after Monday’s close is not whether growth is good, but whether it is worth the price—the same logic behind Friday’s Intel-style plunge.
• Friday’s sector divergence remains a reference point. Intel plunged 28.6% to $65.76, its largest one-day fall since 1974, after fourth-quarter revenue guidance came in far below expectations. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 7.2%, Nvidia fell 4.2%, and AMD fell 10.9% (The Wall Street Journal). Energy bucked the trend: Exxon Mobil and Chevron both reported third-quarter profits above expectations and rose 2.2% and 2.8%, respectively (The Wall Street Journal). AMD’s after-hours earnings Tuesday are the next stop for the chip supply chain. If AMD’s guidance is also cautious, the semiconductor selloff will not be over; if it holds steady, investors may again distinguish between the bill and demand.
• The full-week figures also matter: the S&P 500 fell about 0.58%, the Nasdaq about 2%, and the Dow about 0.85%; the Nasdaq fell about 5.3% over October. Reuters noted that the combined capital spending of the four largest hyperscalers over the past 12 months accounted for more than one-third of total capital spending by S&P 500 constituents, and that share could keep rising (Reuters). A modest weekly decline combined with a large one-day fall is revealing: the selling was concentrated and triggered by earnings, rather than delivered in one blow by macroeconomic data.

IV. AI news: Monday’s AI test shifts from spending to sales

• Apple announced on 31 October that it was partnering with Alibaba to integrate Qwen into Apple Intelligence in mainland China. The features will debut on 4 November with the iOS 27.3 developer beta and roll out broadly with the official release in December. Users in China will be able to access Qwen’s text and image understanding and content generation directly in Siri, Writing Tools and Visual Intelligence. The next-generation Siri AI unveiled at this year’s WWDC will not initially be available in mainland China (Wall Street CN, republished). This runs counter to the AI-bill theme: it asks whether AI can help sell phones. The strength of China demand and services in Apple’s Monday results will determine whether this can offset pressure from the bill.
• Friday’s lesson is already clear. A Bloomberg market wrap said another set of disappointing technology earnings intensified the sector selloff, with traders beginning to question returns on AI investment. The Nasdaq 100 fell about 3%, Intel fell about 28% on weaker-than-expected guidance, and Amazon fell as capital spending increased (Bloomberg, republished). Capital Economics said that as this capital-spending boom begins to rely partly on external financing, investors will become more anxious about how much is being spent and how (Reuters). Apple and Palantir therefore need to answer more than a revenue question Monday: they face the arithmetic of capital spending and cash flow. Friday’s market showed that a poor answer, coupled with slightly weaker guidance, will be punished severely.

V. Calendar ahead (Hong Kong time)

• 2 November (Monday) 07:00: US stock-index futures open (18:00 Sunday, US Eastern time); 23:00: US ISM manufacturing PMI for October; after the close (early 3 November Hong Kong time): Apple and Palantir report earnings (Investor's Business Daily) (Barron’s) (Saxo).
• 3 November (Tuesday): US midterm election voting; AMD, Amgen and Pfizer report after the close (Reuters) (Barron’s).
• 4 November (Wednesday): US ISM services PMI for October; McDonald’s and Qualcomm report earnings; Apple Intelligence for China opens for testing with the iOS developer beta the same day (Barron’s) (Wall Street CN, republished).
• 5 November (Thursday): Airbnb reports earnings (Barron’s).
• 6 November (Friday): US nonfarm payrolls report for October from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the week’s key economic release; Moderna reports earnings (Barron’s).
• Note: The US has entered standard time. Next week, regular US stock trading hours correspond to 22:30 Hong Kong time through 05:00 the following day, with the opening one hour later than during daylight saving time. Sunday evening’s stock-index futures open corresponds to 07:00 Monday in Hong Kong.