OPEC+ holds steady; Apple reports after the close tonight

OPEC+ holds steady; Apple reports after the close tonight
US Stocks Morning Brief | Monday, 2 November 2026 (Hong Kong time; cash-market closes are for Friday, 30 October, US Eastern time; stock index futures open today at 07:00 Hong Kong time. No verifiable Monday futures quotes were available at publication, so this edition is anchored to Friday’s close and weekend news.)

On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 1.82% to 7580.07 points, the Dow fell 1.09% to 51770.31 points, the Nasdaq fell 2.86% to 25437.00 points, and the equal-weight S&P ETF (RSP) fell 0.79% to $218.31 (The Wall Street Journal). The 10-year US Treasury yield was about 4.93%, WTI crude about $104.12 a barrel, gold futures about $3885.70 an ounce, and the US dollar index was broadly flat at about 101.9 (The Wall Street Journal) (Reuters). An initial direction for Monday futures was not available for this edition; the midday brief will use quotes after the open.

Market themes
Neither of the weekend’s two storylines overturned Friday’s sell-off; instead, they made Monday’s questions more focused: Supply is on hold for now—OPEC+ kept its December output target unchanged on Sunday. The demand and valuation questions remain unanswered—Apple and Palantir report after the close tonight, while the Doha talks continue without an agreement. That means Monday’s market is trading on the net direction of three things, rather than any single piece of news: whether oil’s risk premium eases, whether Apple can arrest the technology sell-off, and how much longer uncertainty ahead of the election will last (Reuters, republished) (Reuters). Friday’s lesson is already clear: the market is no longer punishing growth for being too slow, but spending for being too high and returns for coming back too slowly. The Nasdaq fell 2.86% in one day and is down 7.8% from its 6 October closing high, while the equal-weight index fell only 0.79%. This remains a reckoning concentrated within technology stocks, not a surrender across the entire market.

One. The weekend’s outcome: OPEC+ holds steady; Doha talks continue without a deal

• Reuters reported on Sunday that OPEC+ oil producers kept the December output target unchanged at their meeting that day. Seven core members had previously agreed in principle to keep next month’s production unchanged, in line with market expectations that output policy would not be adjusted again in the fourth quarter, with the focus of negotiations shifting to quotas for 2027. The group completed the phased unwinding of cuts of 1.65 million barrels per day in September; another layer of cuts of about 2 million barrels per day, covering most members through the end of 2026, remains in place (Reuters, republished) (Reuters). Holding steady answers the question of whether supply will change again, but not whether risk in the Strait of Hormuz will intensify—the latter was the direct driver of Friday’s 2.08% rise in oil prices.
• Diplomacy continued on Sunday too: Reuters cited an informed official as saying Iranian negotiators held talks with Qatari mediators in Doha for a third consecutive day, aiming to help end the war between the US and Israel and Iran. Qatar is coordinating regularly with Washington on the talks. Trump has said he will not launch new strikes on Iran before election voting and that talks with Tehran have been productive, but he has not ruled out further military action after the vote (Reuters). US Secretary of State Rubio said on Saturday that Trump had not yet decided whether to launch new strikes but preferred a diplomatic resolution; Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei ordered the armed forces on Saturday to prepare for any attack (Reuters). “Talking, but no deal; no strike, but another has not been ruled out”—that alone is a source of oil’s risk premium before Monday’s open.
• Sunday’s divergence in Gulf stocks previewed these differences in hedging capacity: Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index fell 0.8% to 9838 points, with almost all constituents closing lower, while Egypt’s blue-chip index fell 1.9%. Qatar’s benchmark, however, surged 4.6% to 9575 points, its largest one-day percentage gain in more than eight years. Qatar National Bank rose 3%, and Industries Qatar, an industrial group linked to QatarEnergy, rose 7.9% (Reuters). Reuters said factors supporting sentiment in Qatar included QatarEnergy securing long-term liquefied natural gas supplies from the US and other origins to guard against export disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and S&P affirming Qatar’s AA sovereign rating with a stable outlook (Reuters). Qatar’s rally does not say risk has disappeared; it says those with more hedges are being rewarded first.

Two. Bonds, the dollar and commodities: Treasuries end a strong month; oil and gold move in opposite directions

• Friday’s bond-market signal was clearer than the stock market’s: the 10-year US Treasury yield fell 6 basis points to 4.928%, the 2-year yield fell 7.5 basis points to 4.579%, and the 10-year yield fell about 37 basis points over October. The Wall Street Journal said haven buying offset inflation concerns arising from oil’s return above $100; Bloomberg’s market wrap said Treasuries were on course for their best month since February 2025 (The Wall Street Journal) (Bloomberg, republished). The dollar index was broadly flat for the week, as haven sentiment and repricing after the Federal Reserve held rates steady offset each other (The Wall Street Journal).
• Oil continued to rise: December Brent crude futures gained 2.4% to $117.64 a barrel, having touched $118 intraday; WTI rose 2.08% to $104.12 a barrel. Brent gained 13.6% and WTI 15.2% in October, with both at their highest closing levels since late April (Reuters). Reuters reported on Friday that a tanker continued sailing after being struck by mines in the Strait of Hormuz and suffering an engine-room fire, the first successful attack using mines since the US-Iran conflict began in February. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy said the same day that two tankers had been intercepted in waters south of the strait for ignoring radio warnings, while US Central Command said the main shipping lane had been cleared and vessels were free to pass; both accounts currently stand (Reuters). The rise in oil reflects supply risk, not demand—and that is what makes it hardest to manage: the higher oil goes, the harder it is to rule out a rate increase in December entirely, and the more fragile haven buying in bonds appears.
• Gold and silver both fell sharply that day: spot gold dropped 3.5% to about $3881 an ounce, its lowest since October 2025; silver fell about 6% and slipped below $50 an ounce (Reuters). Gold and US Treasuries fell on the same day, breaking the simple script of “buy gold for safety”: when inflation expectations and selling appear together, gold is sold first as a source of liquidity rather than treated as a haven.

Three. Stock and sector moves, including earnings: chip stocks lead declines, energy stocks lend support against the trend; Apple and Palantir in focus tonight

• Intel plunged 28.6% to $65.76, its biggest one-day fall since 1974, because its fourth-quarter revenue guidance was far below market expectations; the company also attributed the result to continued weakness in the PC market. Reuters added that Intel expects fourth-quarter revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion, below analysts’ average estimate of $17.07 billion, and its chief financial officer said it would not achieve positive cash flow this year (The Wall Street Journal) (Reuters). Intel’s fall best illustrates this week’s logic: the quarter’s numbers were not bad, but weak guidance drew a severe penalty. The market is now paying only for the confidence to make commitments about the next quarter.
• Chip stocks fell across the board: Nvidia dropped 4.2%, AMD 10.9%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index 7.2%; Qualcomm fell 11.1% and SanDisk 13%. Reddit plunged 29.2% to $91.73, its biggest one-day fall since listing, because its fourth-quarter revenue guidance was below Wall Street expectations. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet each fell between 1% and 2% on Friday (The Wall Street Journal) (Reuters). Amazon closed down just 1.4% at $240.35, a much smaller decline than its roughly 7% premarket drop (The Wall Street Journal). Amazon’s narrowing loss alongside Intel’s plunge draws the dividing line: cloud growth is still believed, but no company can use a “growth story” to escape scrutiny of cash flow.
• Energy and value stocks remained on the other side of the move: Exxon Mobil and Chevron both reported better-than-expected third-quarter profits and rose 2.2% and 2.8%, respectively. Financial stocks were dragged lower, with Goldman Sachs down 4% and Jefferies down 6%. Crypto was also hit: Coinbase fell 11% to $143.54, and bitcoin fell 1.8% to $76353, after reports that hackers stole more than $6.3 billion from Binance (The Wall Street Journal). The combination of rising energy and falling financials is a reminder that Friday was not a simple risk-on or risk-off switch: capital was repositioning among oil prices, interest rates and the AI bill.
• The first question for tonight is already set: Saxo notes that Apple has risen 28% this year, leading the Magnificent Seven. The market expects earnings per share to grow about 8% year on year to $1.99, and revenue to rise 11% to about $113 billion. Investors will watch iPhone demand and the high-margin services business closely (Saxo). Ahead of Palantir’s after-market results tonight, a JPMorgan analyst initiated coverage with an overweight rating and a December 2027 price target of $262, and placed the stock on a “positive catalyst watch” list. Morgan Stanley maintained an equal-weight rating and a $205 target, saying third-quarter revenue should beat expectations (Barron’s). Two sharply different price targets for the same company are precisely what make tonight’s results interesting: the market wants to know whether growth is worth the price, not merely whether it is good.

Four. AI news: funding also begins to cool; Apple’s China AI is a separate story

• The Financial Times reported that OpenAI cut the target for its latest funding round from $30 billion to $20 billion, while maintaining a valuation of $1.25 trillion, below the initially proposed $1.4 trillion. According to the report, the company set last Friday as the deadline for investor commitments, some investors reduced their subscriptions, the first close is expected to come in below $20 billion, and a consortium of UAE investors including state-backed MGX is expected to be the largest participant (Financial Times, republished). The significance is not the 20 billion itself—it would still be one of the largest private funding rounds in history—but the timing: it came after the Nasdaq fell 2.9% in a day, indicating that even a leading privately held AI company is beginning to feel public-market pricing pressure over the AI bill.
• A Reuters Breakingviews weekend column noted that Anthropic’s prospectus disclosed more than $500 billion in computing-related lease and purchase commitments. Although second-quarter revenue grew 1368% year on year, calculating computing spending at 55% of revenue implies it would need about $177 billion in revenue next year to maintain that spending intensity. The company still plans to list before Thanksgiving, despite rising investor unease and some peers postponing listing plans until next year (Reuters) (Reuters). Anthropic’s arithmetic and listed companies’ earnings pose the same question: orders and revenue can be real, and so can the bills. The market is now debating whether monetization can outrun the pace at which those bills come due.
• Another weekend development, running counter to the AI-bill narrative, came from Apple: Wallstreetcn reported that on 31 October, Apple announced a partnership with Alibaba to integrate Qwen into Apple Intelligence for mainland China. The features will debut with the iOS 27.3 developer beta on 4 November and roll out fully with the public release in December. Users in China will be able to access Qwen’s text and image understanding and content generation directly through Siri, Writing Tools and Visual Intelligence, while the new generation of Siri AI unveiled at this year’s WWDC will not initially be available in mainland China (Wallstreetcn, republished). This story is about whether AI can help sell phones, rather than how much AI costs. In Apple’s results tonight, the strength of China demand and the services business will determine whether this theme can offset pressure from the AI bill.

Five. Calendar ahead (Hong Kong time)

• 2 November (Monday), 07:00: US stock index futures open (Sunday at 18:00 US Eastern time); 23:00: US ISM manufacturing PMI for October; after the close (early 3 November Hong Kong time): Apple and Palantir report earnings (Barron’s) (Saxo).
• 3 November (Tuesday): US midterm election voting; AMD, Amgen and Pfizer report earnings after the close (Reuters) (Barron’s).
• 4 November (Wednesday): US ISM services PMI for October; McDonald’s and Qualcomm report earnings; Apple Intelligence for China opens for testing with the iOS developer beta the same day (Barron’s) (Wallstreetcn, republished).
• 5 November (Thursday): Airbnb reports earnings (Barron’s).
• 6 November (Friday): US nonfarm payrolls report for October (Bureau of Labor Statistics), the week’s key economic release; Moderna reports earnings (Barron’s).
• Note: The US has entered standard time. Next week, regular US stock trading hours correspond to 22:30 through 05:00 the following day in Hong Kong, with the open one hour later than during daylight saving time. The Sunday evening stock index futures open corresponds to 07:00 on Monday in Hong Kong.