Diplomatic hopes pressure oil prices as futures rebound ahead of Apple earnings
US Midday Brief | Monday, 2 November 2026 (Hong Kong time; cash-market closes are for Friday, 30 October, US Eastern time. European markets opened at 16:00 Hong Kong time, about half an hour before publication. Intraday cash-market gains were not yet available, so this report uses pre-open futures and Asian closing figures.)

On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 1.82% to 7580.07 points, the Dow fell 1.09% to 51770.31 points, the Nasdaq fell 2.86% to 25437.00 points, and the equal-weight S&P ETF (RSP) fell 0.79% to $218.31 (The Wall Street Journal). Before midday on Monday, S&P 500 futures were up about 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were up about 0.8% (Bloomberg, republished) (Reuters, republished). The 10-year US Treasury yield was about 4.94%, WTI crude about $101.74 a barrel, spot gold about $3910.67 an ounce, and the euro about $1.1170, while the dollar was little changed (Bloomberg, republished).

Market theme
Monday's midday rebound does not mean “the selloff is over.” Rather, two fronts are offering simultaneous relief: diplomatic hopes have first removed some of the war premium from oil prices, giving futures room to breathe; but the real test of whether the rebound can hold comes tonight—Apple and Palantir earnings after the close, and the October ISM manufacturing PMI at 23:00. Bloomberg's market wrap offered a direct assessment: last week's technology selloff showed investors are becoming less tolerant of companies whose core businesses are slowing while AI spending continues to surge, with Alphabet and Amazon earnings serving as the trigger (Bloomberg, republished). In other words, the midday gains reflect a reprieve from the worst-case scenario; tonight's earnings and data will determine whether the AI bill is worth paying. This is a recovery, not a reversal.

I. Futures and Europe: US futures rebound, European markets pointed to a modestly higher open

  • US futures rose across the board on Monday. Bloomberg's wrap said that as of 10:45 Tokyo time (09:45 Hong Kong time), S&P 500 futures were up 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures were up at least 0.4%. Reuters reported during trading that S&P 500 futures were up about 0.5% and Nasdaq futures about 0.9%, as investors hoped Apple earnings could ease concerns over AI cash burn (Bloomberg, republished) (Reuters, republished). Nasdaq futures gained more than S&P futures, indicating that the recovery began where last week's losses were deepest. But the Nasdaq 100 fell 3.5% on Friday, its worst day since June, and the semiconductor index fell 7.2%; the recovery remains small against those losses.
  • Before the European open, futures also pointed to modest gains: Euro STOXX 50 futures rose 0.1%, German DAX futures rose 0.2%, and UK FTSE futures were little changed. Reuters reported before the open that European stocks were expected to edge higher on Monday, supported by falling oil prices and a rebound in US futures, though the midterm elections and more technology earnings could still cause volatility (Bloomberg, republished) (Reuters, republished). Intraday European cash-market gains were not yet available for this edition; the evening brief will use closing figures.
  • Asian closing prices already provided an example of an uneven recovery: Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.8%, the Shanghai Composite rose 0.3%, South Korea's KOSPI rose 2.6%, recovering part of its 16% loss in October, and Japan's Nikkei rose 0.3% (Bloomberg, republished) (Reuters, republished). Asia's gains were uneven: the hardest-hit markets bounced first, with local news adding to some gains. This matches the pattern in US futures and suggests a common global approach: repair the most oversold areas first, without rushing to reprice.

II. Bonds, the dollar and commodities: diplomatic hopes pressure oil, while bonds and gold diverge

  • Oil was Monday's biggest variable. Bloomberg reported that Trump wanted to give diplomacy with Iran more time after Tuesday's midterm elections before deciding whether to resume strikes; Brent crude fell 1.5% in early trading to about $111.71 a barrel. Reuters reported during trading that Brent fell about 3% to about $109.70 a barrel and WTI fell about 3.4% to about $100.58 a barrel, as Iran and Qatari mediators continued talks (Bloomberg, republished) (Reuters, republished). But giving diplomacy more time does not mean strikes are off: Bloomberg also noted reports of vessels being attacked near the Strait of Hormuz. Oil is shedding the premium for immediate strikes, not the entire geopolitical premium.
  • Bonds and gold moved in opposite directions on Monday: the 10-year US Treasury yield was little changed at 4.94%, the 2-year yield was about 4.61%, and futures still priced in roughly a seventy percent chance of a rate hike in December. Expected cumulative hikes, however, have fallen to 55 basis points from more than 70 a month ago. Spot gold rose 0.9% to about $3910.67 an ounce, recovering some ground after Friday's lowest close in more than a year (Bloomberg, republished) (Reuters, republished). Gold's rebound alongside stable Treasury yields suggests the market is pricing in lower oil prices easing inflation pressure, but not a Federal Reserve pivot to easing. Friday's payrolls and this week's ISM data will help resolve the question of a December rate hike.
  • The dollar was little changed: the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index barely moved, the euro was about $1.1170, and the yen was around 157.77 (Bloomberg, republished). The dollar's stability is the most notable feature of midday trading: if oil prices fall and futures rebound but the dollar does not weaken, capital has not yet shifted from safety back into risk, making the rebound less convincing.

III. Stocks and sectors, including earnings: Apple first tonight, AMD next for the chip supply chain

  • Apple reports earnings after the close tonight. The market expects earnings per share of about $2 and revenue of about $113 billion, above the year-earlier $1.85 per share. Reuters called Apple a “relative oasis of calm”: unlike other giants, it is not spending tens of billions of dollars building data centers; its shares have risen for four straight months, and it reclaimed the world's largest market capitalization from Nvidia on Friday (Reuters, republished) (Bloomberg, republished). Saxo previously noted that Apple had risen 28% year to date, leading the Magnificent Seven, and that investors would closely watch iPhone demand and its high-margin services business (Saxo). Apple faces a different test: it does not need to prove that AI spending pays off, only that phones still sell and services remain highly profitable. That is why it has been treated as a haven during the selloff—and the point most easily disproved tonight.
  • Palantir also reports after the close tonight. JPMorgan initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $262 price target for December 2027, and placed it on its Positive Catalyst Watch list. Morgan Stanley maintained its Equal Weight rating and $205 target, saying third-quarter revenue should beat expectations (Barron's). Two price targets for the same company differ by nearly thirty percent, showing that tonight's debate is about whether growth is worth the price, not whether growth is good—the same logic behind Friday's Intel-style plunge.
  • Demand for hedges has already risen. The Wall Street Journal's “10-Point” said investors were increasing hedges against AI trade risks: the volatility index hit its highest intraday level since April on Friday, and demand for put options protecting against further declines surged. Bloomberg also described Friday's selloff as a “long-awaited volatility shock,” although the relevant indicators remained well below their levels after the US-Israeli strikes on Iran in March (The Wall Street Journal) (Bloomberg, republished). Hedging is rising but has not reached panic levels, matching the character of the midday rebound: some investors are buying insurance, but no one is yet preparing to liquidate their positions.

IV. AI news: the spending bill comes back into focus as slowing core businesses become the new concern

  • Goldman Sachs' estimates make the bill clearer: Reuters cited Goldman analysts as saying hyperscalers' capital spending could nearly double to $800 billion this year and rise further to $1.2 trillion in 2027 (Reuters, republished). The figures themselves are not new; what is new is that the market is using them to ask how companies with slowing core businesses will keep paying the bill. Bloomberg quoted Matt Maley of Miller Tabak as saying that slowing core businesses at hyperscalers mean “the huge returns everyone has been talking about are being pushed further out.”
  • Bloomberg's wrap also noted that DeepSeek released a prototype of a more autonomous coding agent intended to challenge Anthropic's popular Claude Code. Nvidia does not report earnings until late November, meaning the final verdict on this AI narrative remains several weeks away (Bloomberg, republished). Before Nvidia reports, Apple, Palantir and Tuesday's AMD earnings will help determine the ceiling for this recovery: they address demand and cash flow, not the computing-power race itself.

V. Calendar ahead (Hong Kong time)

  • 2 November (Monday), 22:30: US regular trading opens; 23:00: US ISM manufacturing PMI for October and construction spending for September; after the close (early 3 November Hong Kong time): Apple and Palantir report earnings (The Wall Street Journal) (Barron's).
  • 3 November (Tuesday): US midterm election voting; JOLTS job openings for September; AMD, Shopify and Pfizer report earnings after the close (The Wall Street Journal) (Reuters).
  • 4 November (Wednesday): US Treasury announces its quarterly refunding plan; ADP private employment and ISM services PMI for October; Uber, Qualcomm, CVS and McDonald's report earnings; the China version of Apple Intelligence opens for testing in an iOS developer beta the same day (The Wall Street Journal).
  • 5 November (Thursday): Bank of England announces its interest-rate decision; Airbnb reports earnings (The Wall Street Journal).
  • 6 November (Friday): US nonfarm payrolls report for October (Bureau of Labor Statistics), the week's key economic release; Moderna reports earnings (The Wall Street Journal) (Barron's).
  • Note: The US has entered standard time. Regular US stock-market trading runs from 22:30 to 05:00 the following day, Hong Kong time.

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