Oil plunges more than 4% as US stock futures rebound ahead of Apple earnings

Oil plunges more than 4% as US stock futures rebound ahead of Apple earnings
US Stocks Evening Brief | Monday, 2 November 2026 (Hong Kong time; cash-market closing prices are from Friday, 30 October, US Eastern time; regular US trading opens at 22:30 Hong Kong time; at publication, European markets were trading and US markets were in premarket)

On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 1.82% to 7580.07 points, the Dow fell 1.09% to 51770.31 points, the Nasdaq fell 2.86% to 25437.00 points, and the equal-weight S&P ETF (RSP) fell 0.79% to $218.31 (The Wall Street Journal). In premarket trading, Nasdaq futures were up about 0.6%, while S&P 500 and Dow futures were up about 0.3% (The Wall Street Journal). The 10-year US Treasury yield was about 4.91%, WTI crude about $99.61 per barrel, Brent crude about $108.68 per barrel, spot gold about $3911 per ounce, and the euro about $1.12, with the dollar weaker (The Wall Street Journal) (The Wall Street Journal) (Saxo).

Market themes
The evening market picture in one sentence: Oil prices have shed some of the premium for an immediate outbreak of fighting, giving futures room to breathe, but the rebound has narrowed since early morning US Eastern time and European markets have not followed it higher—suggesting investors are buying the postponement of the worst-case scenario, not the removal of risk. Reuters reported that early in the US Eastern morning, Dow futures rose 0.52%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.52%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.89%; by The Wall Street Journal's later premarket roundup, the Nasdaq futures gain had narrowed to 0.6%, while S&P and Dow futures were up about 0.3% (Reuters) (The Wall Street Journal). The tests that will determine whether the rebound can hold still lie ahead tonight: the October ISM manufacturing PMI at 23:00, earnings from Apple and Palantir after the close, and Tuesday's midterm elections. Oil can fall first; the arithmetic of the AI bill comes due tonight.

I. US premarket and Europe: US futures rebound narrows as Europe fails to follow

• US stock futures rose across the board but lost momentum. Reuters said most megacap and growth stocks were higher in premarket trading early in the US Eastern morning, led by SpaceX and Alphabet, while Intel edged up 0.2%. Barron's premarket roundup said Coherent, Corning, Dell, Lumentum, Marvell, SanDisk, Seagate, SpaceX, Super Micro Computer and Western Digital were all higher, as AI stocks rebounded (Reuters) (Barron's). Nasdaq futures gained more than S&P futures, maintaining the pattern of the areas hit hardest last week recovering first. But the narrower gains suggest buyers are in no hurry to chase prices higher; the first question before the open remains whether the ISM data will interrupt the recovery.
• European markets diverged in intraday trading and did not follow US futures higher. Reuters reported that the pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.3% to 645.04 points at 08:13 GMT (16:13 Hong Kong time), with healthcare down 1% and energy down 1%. Britain's FTSE 100 index was essentially flat at 10731.34 points at 11:30 GMT (19:30 Hong Kong time), as declines in energy and healthcare offset gains in other sectors (Reuters) (Reuters). Half the drag on Europe came from falling oil prices weighing on energy stocks, and half from individual stocks. France's Alstom plunged about 27% because execution problems on its German Coradia Max platform weighed on first-half earnings; the company cut its full-year margin guidance from 6.5% to about 1% and forecast negative full-year free cash flow of 1.5 billion euros.
• Asian closing prices had already offered an example of a recovery with divergence: South Korea's KOSPI rose 2.6%, China's blue-chip index rose 1.3%, and Japan rose 0.3%. A Bloomberg roundup said Asian stocks fell less than their US counterparts and US stock futures turned higher (Bloomberg, republished) (Saxo). Taken together, Asia, US futures and European intraday trading suggest the global consensus is only to repair oversold conditions first; there is still no direction for a repricing.

II. Bonds, the dollar and commodities: diplomatic hopes weigh on oil as bonds and gold move in different directions

• Oil was the day's biggest variable. The Wall Street Journal reported that January Brent crude futures fell 4.2% to $108.68 per barrel, December WTI futures fell 4.3% to $99.61 per barrel, and January WTI fell 4.2% to $97.90 per barrel. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said on Sunday that discussions with Qatari mediators were continuing but no agreement had been reached, and that an Iranian delegation had travelled to Doha but no direct talks with the US were scheduled (The Wall Street Journal). The Wall Street Journal also noted that the US had previously told several Gulf states to prepare for a possible brief, intense military operation against Iran after the midterm elections, and that Trump had yet to make a final decision on resuming strikes (The Wall Street Journal). Talks are ongoing but no deal has been reached; there has been no strike, but renewed strikes have not been ruled out. Oil has shed the premium for immediate fighting, not the entire geopolitical premium. Goldman Sachs estimates the geopolitical risk premium at about $27 per barrel and has raised its average Brent price forecast for December to $105 and for 2027 to $88, underscoring that the premium remains.
• Bonds and gold moved in opposite directions. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell to about 4.91%, the 30-year yield was below 5.30%, and the 2-year yield was about 4.60%; markets still expected a Federal Reserve rate increase in December. Spot gold was about $3911 per ounce, recovering some ground after its lowest close in more than a year last Friday, but remaining below $4000 (The Wall Street Journal) (Saxo). The combination of a gold rebound and lower long-end yields suggests markets are pricing in lower oil prices easing inflation pressure, but not a Federal Reserve pivot to easing. Saxo said the probability of a December rate increase was about 72%, while expectations for cumulative increases had already been falling; Friday's nonfarm payrolls and this week's ISM data will help resolve the uncertainty.
• The dollar weakened and the euro was about $1.12. Saxo said currency markets were generally calm, with the euro at about $1.12, sterling at about $1.34, and the dollar at about 157.75 yen. The Wall Street Journal's premarket roundup also said the dollar weakened against a basket of currencies (Saxo) (The Wall Street Journal). A weaker dollar alongside falling oil prices should be a more comfortable combination for risk assets, but Europe's failure to follow the gains and the narrowing futures rebound suggest money has yet to switch from safety back to risk.

III. Stock and sector moves, including earnings: Estée Lauder and Marriott before the open, Apple and Palantir after the close

• Both companies that reported before the open raised guidance. Estée Lauder raised its fiscal 2027 organic sales growth forecast to 4%–5.5% from 3%–5%, and its adjusted earnings per share forecast to $3.20–$3.45 from $3.10–$3.35. Reuters said it was betting on resilient demand for premium skincare and fragrances ahead of the holiday season; its shares rose 2.6% in premarket trading. Marriott reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $3.02, above the expected $2.84, and raised its full-year RevPAR growth forecast to 4.5%–5% from 3%–3.5% (Reuters) (Reuters, republished). The two raised forecasts in consumer goods and travel contrast with technology stocks' anxiety over spending: tonight, markets must distinguish between stories of demand holding up and those of spending too much.
• Apple and Palantir report after the close, and their premarket moves have already diverged. Barron's said Apple fell 0.4% in premarket trading while Palantir rose 1.2%. Saxo said Apple was expected to report quarterly earnings per share of about $2 and revenue of about $113 billion, above the $1.85 reported in the same period last year; investors will also look for clues about early demand for the iPhone 18 (Barron's) (Saxo). JPMorgan initiated coverage of Palantir ahead of its earnings with an overweight rating and a December 2027 price target of $262; Morgan Stanley maintained its equal-weight rating and $205 target (Barron's). Apple faces a different test: it does not need to prove its AI spending is worthwhile, only that its phones are still selling. For Palantir, the question is whether its growth is worth the price. Two price targets for the same company that differ by nearly thirty percent show that valuation itself is a variable tonight.
• Other premarket moves also showed divergence. Okta rose 3.1% because it will replace Kenvue in the S&P 500 before Wednesday's open. Intel continued to fall, down 0.7%, after plunging about 29% last Friday on fourth-quarter guidance that missed expectations (Barron's) (Reuters). Passive buying from index inclusion and active selling after disappointing guidance appeared at the same time. There was no uniform premarket direction, only reasons specific to each stock.

IV. AI headlines: spending figures laid bare again as slowing core businesses become the new concern

• Goldman Sachs' estimates make the bill clearer. Saxo cited Goldman as saying hyperscaler capital spending could approach $800 billion this year and rise further to $1.2 trillion in 2027, while S&P 500 earnings growth was expected to slow from nearly 30% this year to 18% next year (Saxo). Reuters said the Nasdaq 100 lost more than $2.5 trillion in market value in October and was close to entering correction territory, against a backdrop of investors growing more cautious about soaring AI spending by big technology companies while awaiting evidence of stronger returns (Reuters). The figure itself is not news. The news is that the market is starting to ask: how can companies with slowing core businesses keep paying this bill? The Wall Street Journal cited Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid as saying investor scepticism about AI is deepening—that scepticism is the backdrop Apple and Palantir face tonight.
• Apple is seen as a relative haven precisely because it does not spend like its peers. Saxo said Apple was relatively insulated from concerns about heavy data-centre spending; Barron's noted that Apple had just reclaimed the world's largest market capitalisation from Nvidia and would need nearly flawless results tonight to defend its roughly $5 trillion valuation (Saxo) (Barron's). Before Nvidia reports in late November, Apple, Palantir and AMD on Tuesday will first determine the ceiling for this recovery: they will answer questions about demand and cash flow, not the computing-power race itself.

V. Calendar ahead (Hong Kong time)

• 2 November (Monday), 22:30: US regular trading opens; 22:45: final US S&P Global manufacturing PMI for October; 23:00: US ISM manufacturing PMI for October; after the close (early 3 November Hong Kong time): Apple and Palantir report earnings (The Wall Street Journal) (Barron's).
• 3 November (Tuesday): US midterm election voting; September JOLTS job openings; AMD, Amgen and Pfizer report earnings after the close (Reuters) (Saxo).
• 4 November (Wednesday): US Treasury announces its quarterly refunding plan; October ADP private-sector employment and ISM services PMI; Qualcomm, Arm, McDonald's and Uber report earnings (Saxo).
• 5 November (Thursday): Bank of England announces its interest-rate decision; Sony, ConocoPhillips and Cloudflare report earnings (Saxo).
• 6 November (Friday): US October nonfarm payrolls report (Bureau of Labor Statistics), the week's key economic release; Moderna reports earnings (Barron's) (Saxo).
• Note: The US has switched to standard time. Regular US stock trading runs from 22:30 Hong Kong time to 05:00 the following day. A premarket quote for the equal-weight S&P ETF was unavailable for this edition, so the price shown is last Friday's close.