Apple falls nearly 4% premarket as U.S. stock futures diverge ahead of midterms

Apple falls nearly 4% premarket as U.S. stock futures diverge ahead of midterms
U.S. Stocks Evening Brief | Tuesday, 3 November 2026 (Hong Kong time; cash-market closing figures are for Monday, 2 November, U.S. Eastern time; regular U.S. stock trading opens at 22:30 Hong Kong time; at publication, U.S. markets are in premarket trading and European markets are open)

On Monday, the Dow rose 0.41% to 51983.98 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.51% to 7541.40 points, and the Nasdaq fell 1.07% to 25164.32 points. The equal-weight S&P ETF (RSP) closed Monday up 0.77% at $219.98; its premarket quote was unavailable for this edition (Barron's). Premarket Dow futures were down about 0.8%, S&P 500 futures were down about 0.1%, and Nasdaq futures were up about 0.3% (The Wall Street Journal). The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries was about 4.925%, up around 3 basis points from Monday. WTI crude was about $97.20 a barrel, Brent about $105.10 a barrel, and gold futures fell more than 1% to around $3900 an ounce. The dollar was broadly flat, with the dollar index at about 101.8 (The Wall Street Journal, republished) (Reuters).

Market themes
The evening market picture is sharply divided: Dow futures are falling under pressure from Apple, while Nasdaq futures have only just turned positive on a rebound in chip stocks. The market is not choosing a direction; faced with earnings that beat expectations but were not good enough, it is separately weighing the persistence of demand and the erosion of profits by costs. Both Apple and Palantir reported quarterly results above expectations, yet both fell sharply premarket. The Nasdaq 100 has fallen more than 10% from its record high, entering a technical correction, while chip stocks rebounded only after falling 12% in three days (Reuters, republished) (Barron's). Meanwhile, oil prices have rebounded slightly after news of a strike, and voting in the midterm elections is under way, but the results will only begin to become clear on Wednesday Hong Kong time at the earliest. What can immediately reshape prices tonight is JOLTS at 23:00 and AMD's earnings after the close, rather than the votes themselves.

I. Premarket and European trading: Dow futures lead declines, European tech weighs on the market

• Premarket futures showed a split between a weak Dow and a stronger Nasdaq. The Wall Street Journal's premarket review said Dow futures fell 0.8%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.1%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.3%, after the Nasdaq had just recorded its worst three-day performance since April 2025 (The Wall Street Journal). Reuters reported early in the U.S. Eastern morning that Dow e-mini futures fell 219 points, or about 0.42%; S&P 500 e-mini futures were broadly flat; and Nasdaq 100 e-mini futures rose 130.5 points, or about 0.46% (Reuters, republished). The same futures moved during the day from the Nasdaq leading gains to the Nasdaq barely positive, suggesting that buying behind the rebound lacks conviction. A recovery in chip stocks supported the Nasdaq, while Apple's weight alone was enough to pull down the Dow.
• Technology shares also weighed on European trading. Reuters reported that the pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.4% to 647.13 points at 09:55 GMT (17:55 Hong Kong time). The technology sector fell 1.6%, STMicroelectronics and ASML each fell more than 1.1%, and Siemens Energy fell nearly 1% (Reuters, republished). Reuters' European premarket report noted that STOXX 600 futures had fallen more than 1% at one point, while German DAX and Spanish IBEX futures were down about 1%, against a backdrop of rising oil prices following news of a U.S. strike on Iran's Qeshm Island (Reuters). The pattern in Europe mirrors U.S. premarket trading: AI-linked stocks and those sensitive to energy costs are falling, while stocks with company-specific news are holding up. This is not broad risk aversion, but the same AI selloff continuing in another market.
• Gains in some European stocks offset index declines. Reuters reported that Bayer rose 4.4% after raising its 2026 profit forecast; Lufthansa rose 3.3% on broadly resilient results despite lowering its full-year profit forecast; Philips rose 4.3% after reaching a preliminary agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice over an investigation into a 2021 recall; and Britain's Drax jumped 9% after partnering with Brookfield and AI infrastructure platform Radiant to develop data centers (Reuters, republished). The gains in Bayer and Philips suggest capital has not left equities, but is rotating from AI narrative stocks into defensive stocks with more certain news. A falling index alongside rising individual shares is a classic sign of rotation.
• The midterms are tonight's backdrop, not an immediate variable. Reuters said U.S. voters are casting ballots Tuesday to decide control of Congress. Polls favor Democrats winning the House, while the Senate remains uncertain, and a clear picture of Congress will not emerge until Wednesday at the earliest (Reuters). The election will not yield a final result tonight, but it will determine the answer to the oil-price question of whether strikes will resume after the election. Until results arrive, oil and futures can only price in the back-and-forth in the news.

II. Bonds, the dollar and commodities: Oil edges higher, yields rise and gold retreats

• Oil rebounded but recovered little of Monday's losses. Dow Jones Newswires' premarket review said Brent crude edged up 0.25% to $105.10 a barrel and WTI rose 0.7% to about $97.20 a barrel, after each fell more than 7% on Monday (The Wall Street Journal, republished). Reuters reported that during Asian trading Brent was around $105.19, up 0.4%, while WTI fluctuated near $104.72, with the tug of war between news of U.S.-Iran talks and strikes still the backdrop (Reuters). A rebound of less than 1% is only a technical bounce against Monday's drop of more than 7%. The market has not returned to pricing in a full war premium because of one strike report; it is waiting for the next word on negotiations.
• The signals from the talks remain mixed. Reuters said U.S. officials described the strike on Qeshm Island as a “defensive” action, while Iran had previously said contacts with Qatari mediators continued and an agreement remained far away (Reuters). A Bloomberg market review also said Iran's president reported that the supreme leader had given the government greater authority to negotiate, and Trump suggested progress had been made, but Tehran also said the talks had modified the proposal without producing a breakthrough (Bloomberg, republished). Having authority to negotiate and reaching a deal are different things: Monday's oil decline reflected hope from the former, while Tuesday's rise was a reminder that the latter has yet to materialize.
• Bonds and gold moved in the opposite direction to oil: the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose about 3 basis points to 4.925%, the 2-year yield climbed above 4.60%, and the 30-year yield was around 5.30%. Gold futures fell more than 1% to about $3900 an ounce, while the dollar was broadly flat (The Wall Street Journal, republished). The combination of rising yields and falling gold suggests the market is pricing in a little renewed inflation pressure from the oil rebound, but not broad risk aversion. With the dollar unmoved and gold merely pulling back from around $3955, safe-haven sentiment is far from panic.

III. Stock and sector movers, including earnings: Apple margin guidance weighs on the market; chip stocks rebound first

• Apple is the biggest drag in premarket trading tonight. Reuters reported that Apple fell about 4% premarket after warning that memory chip costs would continue to rise and squeeze holiday-quarter gross margin. New CEO John Ternus called the memory-chip pricing environment “unprecedented” and expects costs to keep rising beyond the quarter ending in December (Reuters). Barron's premarket roundup said Apple fell 3.7%: although results beat expectations, guidance failed to meet the market's high expectations and the stock already traded at a high premium (Barron's). Apple's test differs from those of other companies: it does not need to prove that AI spending pays off, only that it can defend gross margin next quarter. Rising memory-chip costs are precisely the hardest part of that test.
• Apple's results were not poor in themselves; the problem is the next quarter. Reuters said Apple's gross margin for the quarter ending in September was 47.9%, below the level of the quarter ending in June, while guidance for the quarter ending in December was only 45% to 46%, including costs from the launch of an AI-powered Siri. iPhone sales for the quarter were 57.58 billion U.S. dollars, above market expectations of 56.54 billion U.S. dollars (Reuters). Above-forecast revenue followed by a steep premarket fall reflects the same standard seen with Intel last week: weak guidance brings a heavy penalty. The market is now judging whether next quarter's gross margin and costs can keep pace, rather than the past quarter.
• Palantir likewise beat expectations but fell. Reuters reported that Palantir's revenue forecast for the final three months of the year exceeded expectations and its third-quarter results also beat forecasts, yet its shares fell 6.3%. Barron's premarket roundup put the decline at 7.7%, saying a surge in third-quarter business-to-business sales was insufficient to lift a stock that had been broadly flat over the past year (Reuters, republished) (Barron's). Apple and Palantir share one feature: their valuations had already priced in good news. When results are merely good rather than far above expectations, selling becomes the default response.
• Chip stocks rebounded premarket, but the main event comes after the close. Barron's said AMD rose 2.5% premarket, Sandisk rose 3.4%, and Coherent, Intel and Super Micro Computer also advanced. Onsemi rose 2.1% after its third-quarter revenue and profit beat expectations and AI data-center sales surged 175% year on year (Barron's). Reuters also said AMD rose 2.8% premarket, with Marvell and Intel higher as well (Reuters, republished). Against a three-day 12% decline in chip stocks and the Nasdaq 100 entering correction, the rebound looks more like an oversold bounce than a trend reversal. Tonight's post-market results from AMD, Arista and Super Micro Computer are the next test of whether the recovery can hold.
• Today's earnings calendar spans both sides of the close. Reuters' preview listed Pfizer and Shopify before the open, followed by AMD, Super Micro Computer, Arista, Amgen and Booking, among others, after the close (Reuters). Before the open, the focus is on demand resilience in consumer goods and pharmaceuticals; after the close, it shifts to guidance across the chip supply chain. Tonight the market must distinguish between the stories of demand persisting and spending too much.

IV. AI news: The correction is here; AMD reports tonight

• The correction is already a fact, not a warning. Barron's said the Nasdaq 100 entered a technical correction for the third time this year, after a promising start on Monday failed to hold through the close. Reuters said the Nasdaq 100 was down more than 10% from its record closing high, as investors grew more cautious about soaring AI spending by large technology companies while awaiting evidence of stronger returns (Barron's) (Reuters, republished). Falling oil prices and easing geopolitical tensions could not rescue technology stocks, suggesting this correction is driven by the AI bill itself rather than external shocks. External shocks can change the pace, but not the direction.
• The high bar for technology stocks is now quantified. Barron's cited Wells Fargo data showing that, as of 30 October, S&P 500 companies' earnings beat expectations by an average of 3%, or 5.1% excluding the Magnificent Seven. Technology stocks and the Magnificent Seven barely met expectations, underscoring that the market sets the highest bar for them (Barron's). Apple and Palantir's experience tonight is the company-level version of that statistic: results were not poor, but not good enough to justify prices that had already risen.
• Memory-chip costs are a double-edged sword: they squeeze Apple's gross margin while benefiting memory stocks themselves. Barron's said rising memory costs benefit memory stocks such as Micron, while AMD has an opportunity to change short-term sentiment tonight (Barron's). In the same wave of memory price increases, buyers pay and sellers collect. AMD's guidance tonight will determine which side the market believes first: cost pressure or demand itself.

V. Calendar ahead (Hong Kong time)

• 3 November (Tuesday), 23:00: U.S. JOLTS job openings for September and factory orders for September; after the close (early 4 November Hong Kong time): AMD, Arista, Super Micro Computer and Amgen report earnings (The Wall Street Journal) (Reuters).
• 4 November (Wednesday): The U.S. Treasury announces its quarterly refunding plans; U.S. ISM services PMI for October; McDonald's and Qualcomm report earnings (Barron's).
• 5 November (Thursday): Airbnb reports earnings.
• 6 November (Friday), 21:30: U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for October (Bureau of Labor Statistics), the week's key economic release; Moderna reports earnings.
• Note: The United States is now on standard time. Regular U.S. stock trading runs from 22:30 to 05:00 the following day, Hong Kong time. The equal-weight S&P premarket quote was unavailable for this edition, so Monday's close is used.