Macro

How growth, inflation and monetary policy affect global markets.

Reports on this topic

Bank of America2026-10-23

Bank of America: Doubts over AI returns weigh on Treasury yields, while the case for rate hikes in the US and Europe remains

US stocks fell as Treasury yields declined. BofA believes markets are worried about whether AI investment can be converted into profits. Risk aversion raises the bar for a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, but the energy shock and underlying inflation still support further tightening; the European Central Bank is more likely to wait, while the Bank of England faces more immediate pressure to act.

J.P. Morgan2026-10-23

J.P. Morgan: After the safe-haven rally in Treasuries, why does JPMorgan still expect yields to rise and the curve to steepen?

Pressure on French government bonds and weakness in technology stocks drove Treasuries higher, but JPMorgan believes near-term valuations have become expensive and prefers a trade betting on a wider spread between 10-year and 30-year yields. Auction data show that foreign and long-end demand remains strong, although buyers have become more price-sensitive across most maturities.

Goldman Sachs2026-10-24

Goldman Sachs: AI boom spreads to Taiwan’s domestic demand as Goldman Sachs shifts to forecasting rate hikes from December

Wages, consumption and corporate credit are strengthening together. Goldman Sachs has raised its growth forecasts for Taiwan for this year and next, and expects rate hikes of 12.5 basis points in each of three consecutive quarters. Capital outflows are weighing on the New Taiwan dollar in the short term, but the medium-term outlook remains positive.

Goldman Sachs2026-10-23

Goldman Sachs: AI investment expectations move the dollar as the yen regains hedging appeal

Goldman Sachs maintains its baseline view of a moderately weaker dollar, but a slowdown in AI investment and an energy shock would push the dollar in opposite directions. The yen is better suited to hedging a cooling growth outlook, while the renminbi is supported by the trade surplus and its undervaluation.

Goldman Sachs2026-10-23

Goldman Sachs: AI concerns restore bonds’ safe-haven value as global rate opportunities diverge by maturity

Energy inflation continues to constrain central banks, but AI-related safe-haven demand is again supporting bond markets. Goldman Sachs favors the middle of the US curve, eurozone flattening and UK gilts relative to swaps, while raising its forecasts for French and Italian sovereign spreads.

Goldman Sachs2026-10-23

Goldman Sachs: China high-frequency economic tracker: Travel and ports recover, while housing and steel demand remain mixed

Goldman Sachs’ 23 October tracker shows that domestic flights, port throughput and existing-home transactions improved over the past week, while new-home transactions remained well below their year-earlier level and steel demand declined. Fiscal issuance progress and falling funding rates provide another line of observation.

Goldman Sachs2026-10-23

Goldman Sachs: Cutting China broad fiscal deficit forecast as weak spending and falling land-sale revenue weigh

Fiscal spending rebounded month on month in September, but remained nearly stagnant year on year, while the decline in property-related revenue widened. Goldman Sachs cut its forecast for the 2026 broad fiscal deficit as a share of GDP from 11.5% to 10.0%. It expects the fiscal drag to ease in the fourth quarter, while the full-year fiscal impulse remains weaker than in 2025.

Bank of America2026-10-22

Bank of America: Dollar rebound does not change medium-term weakening view; euro recovery depends on French risks

Widening yield spreads and energy prices have supported the dollar’s recent rise. BofA maintains its forecast of EUR/USD at 1.20 at the end of 2027. Its view depends on the Federal Reserve not raising rates beyond market pricing or on an easing of the Middle East situation; French fiscal risks determine the scope for a euro recovery.

J.P. Morgan2026-10-23

J.P. Morgan: China’s fiscal revenue turns negative in September: how can 550 billion yuan in local bond quotas support growth?

General public budget revenue fell year on year for the first time this year in September, the decline in land-sale revenue widened, and fiscal spending remained behind the budget target. JPMorgan believes the additional local bond quotas can ease local funding pressures, but there is a lag between bond issuance and project execution, so some support for growth will continue into early 2027.

Nomura2026-10-23

Nomura: China’s fiscal spending remained in contraction in the third quarter. How much lift can faster bond issuance provide in the fourth?

Nomura believes that, although the decline in broad fiscal spending narrowed in the third quarter, it still weighed on growth. Government bond financing is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter, but its actual impact will depend on how the funds are used and the constraints corporate arrears place on complementary financing.

Nomura2026-10-23

Nomura: Fed expected to pause rate hikes in October as housing weakens and investment remains strong

Nomura expects the Fed to hold rates steady in October and raise them by another 25 basis points in December. A rebound in inflation still supports tightening, but downward revisions to historical data, credit pressures and housing weakness reduce the urgency to act immediately; third-quarter growth is supported by consumption and business investment.

Nomura2026-10-23

Nomura: Tech stock volatility adds to downward pressure on the dollar. How should investors position in the renminbi and Asian rates?

Nomura has raised its conviction in a bullish offshore renminbi position, maintained its long Singapore dollar versus Indonesian rupiah and receive-fixed Hong Kong and Korean rates trades, and exited its position betting on higher Singapore rates. The central themes are slower inflows into US assets and safe-haven demand, but local policies and capital flows determine how much each market benefits.

Goldman Sachs2026-10-23

Goldman Sachs: Japan’s new core inflation rises to 2.4% in September: holiday travel pushes up service prices as goods costs also pass through

Japan’s new core CPI accelerated by 0.5 percentage points year on year in September from August, coming in slightly above market consensus and in line with Goldman Sachs’ forecast. A long holiday contributed to higher accommodation and outbound travel prices, while airfares, some durable goods and dining also added upward pressure. Energy inflation was unchanged, while lower fresh food prices limited the increase in headline inflation.

Barclays2026-10-22

Barclays: Bank of Japan expected to pause rate hikes in October, inflation assessment could pave the way for December

Barclays expects the Bank of Japan to keep its policy rate at 1.25% in October while upgrading its assessment of underlying inflation to broadly consistent with the 2% target. Financial conditions remain accommodative, supporting subsequent rate hikes every three to four months, but weaker domestic demand and a subsequent decline in inflation limit the room for tightening.