In the third quarter of 2026, Chinese battery makers' revenue grew 10%–20% quarter on quarter, but profit per unit generally declined. HSBC expects tax pressure to persist through the first quarter of 2027, with revenue recognition from overseas energy storage projects potentially providing a buffer.
Samsung SDI is expanding energy storage supplies in the US, while LG Energy Solution advances local capacity; solid-state and semi-solid-state batteries are at different stages of commercialization, and lithium prices have fallen sharply over the past month.
Citi's channel survey shows that actual production schedules in October were below the level indicated by its mid-month survey, and the top five battery manufacturers' planned output is expected to fall to 187.5 GWh in November. A narrowing window to bring forward exports, the approaching Lunar New Year off-season and the addition of new capacity could together put pressure on battery selling prices and margins.
Bernstein’s tracking this week shows that Samsung SDI’s conversion of energy-storage production lines has already generated equipment orders, while GM is trying to reduce battery usage through new chemistries and vehicle efficiency. China’s battery-swapping network continues to expand, and falling lithium prices are also creating room to lower battery costs.
