The Chilean Copper Commission cut its 2026 output forecast from 5.61 million tonnes to 4.94 million tonnes. Goldman Sachs estimates that, by the end of 2027, mines accounting for 60%—65% of Chilean copper supply will enter labor negotiations, but widespread strikes are not its base case.
Large volumes of copper inventories are being absorbed by the United States, while Chinese smelter maintenance, tighter scrap copper supplies and disruptions at mines are supporting the near-term spot market. Morgan Stanley expects the tightness to ease as US tariff policy and mine supply change in 2027.
Freeport management says recovery rates from its new leaching method could continue to improve over time. Bernstein believes a breakthrough in leaching primary copper sulfides would change long-term supply expectations, but scaling up, costs and copper prices remain key hurdles.
High copper prices are encouraging the recovery of old copper scrap. Bernstein estimates that this source of supply could increase by about 500 thousand tonnes in 2026, equivalent to the output of several new mining projects. Combined with stockpiling driven by tariff concerns and inventory accumulation, this makes the bank more bearish on copper prices in the short term, although it retains its long-term bullish view.
