Track semiconductors, computing infrastructure and the technology cycle.
Bernstein cuts its fiscal 2027 earnings forecast for Qualcomm: Apple-related revenue is expected to decline, the Android business also faces pressure, and the contribution from data center growth will take time to materialize.
As of 30 October, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had fallen 27% from its June peak, while expected earnings per share for the next 12 months rose by about 40% over the same period. Bernstein believes cloud providers’ spending plans and Intel’s data center business continue to show strong AI demand, while the PC business is being held back by tight memory supplies.
Bernstein estimates that 244 gigawatts of data center projects are exposed to political risk, based on gubernatorial candidates’ probabilities of winning, little changed from last month. The firm believes local economic interests could shift the policy focus toward requiring developers to bear more of the cost of electricity infrastructure.
SemiAnalysis expects more than 50 GW of new data center capacity worldwide in 2027, but most projects underlying the forecast of 62.2 GW in net additions in the US in 2028 have yet to begin construction. The duration of the Texas permitting freeze is the largest single risk to the pace of delivery.
New orders reached a record in the first three quarters of 2026, with memory customers contributing around sixty percent; but revenue fell quarter on quarter in the third quarter amid component shortages, and Nomura cut its full-year revenue forecast.
Demand for optical chips and capacity expansion prompted Nomura to sharply raise its earnings forecasts, but geopolitical risks depressed its valuation assumptions; the company's third-quarter profit also failed to grow quarter on quarter alongside revenue.
Second-quarter operating profit exceeded the Bloomberg consensus, and the company expects full-year revenue growth to outpace JPMorgan’s forecast for the wafer fab equipment market. However, fewer high-margin projects and higher expansion costs in the second half will limit margin improvement.
The company plans to change the use of proceeds from its H-share offering to expand optical module capacity; third-quarter net profit doubled from the previous quarter, and 1.6T products have begun shipping in small volumes.
In the third quarter of 2026, the company’s revenue rose 74% year over year, and its gross margin improved by 9 percentage points. Citi believes the optical business drove the improvement in profitability, while flagging price pressure on flexible printed circuit boards.
Intel expects higher memory costs to push up the prices of complete systems and suppress PC demand in 2027, with the decline concentrated in the first half; Citi believes HP will be relatively more affected.
Data-center revenue rose about 80% year over year in the third quarter, but an Israeli fab shutdown, PC inventory adjustments and insufficient capacity weakened the fourth-quarter outlook. Citi cut its earnings forecasts and price target while maintaining a Buy rating.
A higher share of US modules lifted third-quarter gross margin, but weak demand in India and international markets forced the company to cut its full-year shipment and revenue guidance; Citi also lowered its future earnings forecasts and price target.
Annualized rent from new third-quarter bookings far exceeded Citi’s expectations, but new projects commenced more slowly than expected, while capital spending and negative free cash flow both increased.
Third-quarter retail trading volume and transaction revenue fell short of Citi’s expectations, prompting the bank to lower its earnings forecasts for the next two years; expansion in prediction markets, stablecoins and lending supported its long-term diversification thesis.
TSMC expects capital spending to rise to 60 billion–64 billion US dollars in 2026, with multiyear demand for N2, N3 and N5 jointly supporting capacity expansion. Citi is optimistic about long-term growth and profitability, but overseas fab construction will continue to dilute gross margin.
Gemini 4 Carbon has widened the benchmark lead of closed-source models, but its current availability is limited; meanwhile, long-term memory contracts and longer tasks are changing the cost structure of AI compute.
Flooding in Thailand delayed shipments and revenue recognition, with third-quarter revenue and net profit both well below Citi’s expectations. The company is counting on a recovery in fourth-quarter deliveries, while Citi has also lowered its gross margin assumptions for the next three years.
US tech debt has fallen 9% year to date, with returns relative to the investment-grade bond index at a 30-year low. BofA considers yields attractive, but capital spending and cash-flow pressures at big tech companies continue to grow.
Third-quarter revenue rose 28% quarter on quarter but missed Citi and Bloomberg consensus estimates; a gross margin of 65% supported profit performance. Citi expects revenue to improve further in the fourth quarter while lowering its medium-term earnings forecasts and target price.
Third-quarter growth in intelligent driving domain controllers was driven by projects entering mass production, but higher raw material prices and delays in passing costs through to customers lowered gross margin quarter on quarter. Citi maintained its earnings forecasts and Neutral rating, while the robotics business began securing design wins.
