Goldman Sachs: South Korea morning market briefing: Tech shares under pressure as memory price increases and exports diverge

Tech shares are falling. What pressures does the South Korean market face?

KOSPI futures fell 2.9%, and the technology sector continued to weaken amid poor earnings; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 7.2%. Goldman Sachs’ US market team said asset managers turned net sellers by the end of the week, reversing their purchases of tech shares earlier in the week.
The Korea Exchange published a list of 151 listed companies with low price-to-book ratios, including 96 on the KOSPI and 55 on the KOSDAQ, in an effort to encourage long-undervalued companies to take the initiative in increasing corporate value.

TrendForce expects average selling prices for DRAM used in PCs, servers and mobile devices to rise quarter on quarter by 13%–18%, 10%–15% and 0–5%, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2026. Its forecast for PC DRAM is higher than Goldman Sachs’ expectation, while its forecasts for server and mobile DRAM are broadly in line.
Average selling prices for eMMC and UFS are expected to rise 4%–9% quarter on quarter over the same period, but by less than Goldman Sachs expects for the related NAND products. Goldman Sachs believes tight NAND supply and demand will persist through 2027, supporting further price increases; multiyear long-term contracts have also improved demand visibility beyond 2027–2028.
KIOXIA performed steadily in the third quarter, but its fourth-quarter outlook differs from those of Samsung and SK hynix because of changes in delivery timing and different comparison bases.

South Korean exports fell a seasonally adjusted 4.1% month on month in October, following a 18.1% increase the previous month. Semiconductor exports rose 6.9% month on month, increasing for the 13th consecutive month; combined exports of other products fell 9.6% month on month, showing that growth was uneven.
Industrial production rose a seasonally adjusted 9.0% month on month in September, following a 4.6% decline the previous month. Goldman Sachs said semiconductor and automobile production rebounded 19.2% and 39.9% month on month, respectively, at the end of the quarter, accounting for the entire month-on-month increase.

South Korean cosmetics exports rose 57.5% year on year to 1.4 billion US dollars in October; the cumulative total from 1 through October reached 12.57 billion US dollars, already exceeding the 11.42 billion US dollars recorded for all of 2025. Goldman Sachs believes demand in the US and Europe supports brands’ overseas sales in the fourth quarter and capacity utilization at contract manufacturers.
APR’s third-quarter cosmetics revenue rose 151% year on year, driven by offline channels in Europe and the US; however, unfavorable exchange rates weighed on its operating margin. Operating profit was 161 billion South Korean won, broadly in line with Goldman Sachs’ forecast. Goldman Sachs maintained its buy rating, while noting that European logistics and exchange-rate pressures could delay a recovery in margins.

Kia’s third-quarter operating profit was 1.82 trillion South Korean won, below the Bloomberg consensus and Goldman Sachs’ forecast. Goldman Sachs believes that, although its profitability remains above that of its peers, recent earnings misses have increased uncertainty over margins, and cost pressures may also persist.
Goldman Sachs lowered Kia’s target valuation multiple to 6.1 times and its price target from 210 thousand to 120 thousand South Korean won, and downgraded the stock from buy to neutral; the bank believes the shares look inexpensive but have limited catalysts.