Bank of America: North American gold miners diverge in third quarter: Agnico Eagle buybacks exceed expectations, Eldorado cuts production guidance

Why did Agnico Eagle stand out, and what are its constraints?

Adjusted earnings per share in the third quarter of 2026 were $2.62, above BofA’s forecast of $2.42 and Bloomberg consensus of $2.51; free cash flow was $852 million, also above BofA’s forecast.
The company repurchased $250 million of shares during the quarter, above BofA’s forecast of $150 million; dividends and buybacks totaled $455 million, about 53% of quarterly free cash flow. The company now expects full-year shareholder returns to exceed 50% of free cash flow, up from 40% previously.
Operating pressure remains: third-quarter gold production fell 6% year over year and free cash flow fell 28%; amid higher diesel and consumables costs, the company expects full-year production at the low end of its guidance of 3.3 million to 3.5 million ounces and all-in sustaining costs at the high end of the $1400 to $1550 per ounce range.
BofA maintained its Buy rating and named the company its top precious-metals pick for 2026, citing mining assets in high-quality jurisdictions, its record of meeting targets and its pipeline of growth projects.

Alamos produced 119 thousand ounces of gold in the third quarter, near the low end of its guidance of 115 thousand to 140 thousand ounces, mainly due to lower grades at the Island Gold mine. Adjusted EBITDA was $312 million, below BofA’s forecast of $329 million and Bloomberg consensus of $333 million.
The company maintained its full-year production guidance of 510 thousand to 560 thousand ounces and expects fourth-quarter production to rise 18% to 34% quarter over quarter, supported by higher underground mining rates and grades at Island Gold.
However, commissioning of the Island Gold Phase 3+ shaft has been delayed by one quarter to the second quarter of 2027, and project capital expenditure is 5% above the original budget of $835 million; the increase in underground mining rates to 2400 tonnes per day has also been pushed back from the first quarter of 2027 to the second half. Underground development at the PDA mine is below expectations, and production in the second half of 2027 is expected to be below plan.
Third-quarter free cash outflow was about $11 million, partly due to a payment of $86 million to buy back and eliminate Argonaut’s gold hedge positions. BofA believes project delays increase downside risk to 2027–2028 guidance and maintained its Neutral rating.

Eldorado produced 106.4 thousand ounces of gold in the third quarter, below BofA’s forecast of 113.4 thousand ounces; adjusted EBITDA was $275.2 million, below BofA’s forecast of $292 million. Grades at Kisladag were lower and mining progressed more slowly; the benefits of higher-grade ore are expected at the end of the fourth quarter and in 2027.
The company cut its 2026 production guidance for existing operating assets from 430 thousand–490 thousand ounces to 410 thousand–430 thousand ounces; guidance including Skouries and McIlvenna Bay fell from 495 thousand–600 thousand ounces to 425 thousand–475 thousand ounces. Full-year all-in sustaining cost guidance rose from $1670–$1870 per ounce to $1975–$2125 per ounce.
Skouries produced its first copper-gold concentrate in September, but commercial production is expected to be delayed from the third quarter to the end of the fourth quarter, and project capital expenditure has risen to $1.425 billion. Both major projects remain in the investment phase: excluding Skouries and McIlvenna Bay, quarterly free cash flow was positive; on a consolidated basis it was negative.
BofA maintained its Buy rating, seeing potential for growth in gold and copper production in 2027–2028 and expecting share-price pressure to potentially create a buying opportunity.

Kinross reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.50, above the $0.46 forecast from each of BofA and Bloomberg, mainly due to higher financial income and lower taxes; EBITDA was $1.038 billion, in line with BofA’s forecast but below Bloomberg consensus of $1.081 billion.
Increased working capital requirements reduced quarterly free cash flow to $275 million, below BofA’s forecast of $435 million. The company repurchased $210 million of shares in the third quarter and another $100 million in the fourth quarter as of the report date, targeting a full-year return of 50% of free cash flow.
The company said it is on track to meet revised 2026 guidance, operations at La Coipa have stabilized, and Round Mountain is moving toward stability. BofA maintained its Underperform rating because the company’s production and cost outlook is less attractive than those of its peers.