Energy storage tenders continue to grow as capacity utilization rises to 95%

Why are China’s energy storage shipments continuing to grow?

In September 2026, China’s energy storage battery shipments reached 112.2 GWh, up 91% year on year and flat month on month. Domestic shipments accounted for 108.4 GWh, up 91% year on year, and were the main driver.
In the first nine months of the year, China’s cumulative shipments reached 837.2 GWh, up 96% year on year. Bernstein believes lower battery costs and a more favorable policy environment have improved energy storage economics.
Bernstein raised its global energy storage battery demand forecast, expecting demand to reach 1,206 GWh in 2026, up 119% from 550 GWh in 2025, and to reach 2,301 GWh in 2030.

China’s energy storage tender volume was 62.0 GWh in September, up 74% year on year; the cumulative total for the first nine months was 582.2 GWh, up 83% year on year. Awarded tender volume in the month was 41.6 GWh, up 14% year on year, a slower growth rate than tender volume.
Bernstein observed that Chinese manufacturers’ shipments closely track the combined value of Chinese tender volumes and overseas orders from the preceding two quarters. A regression based on this relationship forecasts shipments of 370 GWh in the fourth quarter of 2026, up 74% year on year.
The report gives different figures for its quarterly forecasts: the fourth-quarter chart title says 432 GWh, while the chart itself shows 370 GWh; for the first quarter of 2027, the front page says 346 GWh, while the regression analysis text and chart show 332 GWh.

In September, China’s monthly energy storage battery capacity was 121.0 GWh, up 70% year on year, below the 91% growth rate for shipments. Capacity utilization rose to 95% from 85% a year earlier. On this basis, Bernstein sees supply and demand tightening in the near term.
CATL shipped 24.0 GWh in September, up 78% year on year, and remained the market leader with a 21.4% share in the first nine months of the year. Hithium and EVE Energy shipped 10.5 GWh and 10.0 GWh, respectively, during the month, up 50% and 47% year on year.
Bernstein believes CATL remains well positioned to be a long-term industry winner, but its third-quarter results disappointed because margins contracted, showing that shipment growth and profitability do not always move in step.

US energy storage battery installations reached 3.4 GWh in September, up 43% year on year. However, the cumulative total for the first nine months was 31.1 GWh, broadly flat year on year; the monthly rebound has yet to lift cumulative installations.
Germany installed 1.3 GWh in September, up 178% year on year. Large-scale energy storage installations accounted for 0.70 GWh, up 2268% year on year, and were the main source of growth that month. Cumulative installations in the first nine months reached 7.9 GWh, up 68% year on year.