What do changes in Pro delivery waits indicate?

  • In week 8, average delivery waits for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max in the regions tracked by JPMorgan were 3 days and 16 days, respectively, down from 7 days and 21 days the previous week.
  • Compared with the same week after the previous generation launched, the Pro wait was 5 days shorter, while the Pro Max wait remained 1 day longer; in the previous week, both models were roughly in line with their predecessors. On this basis, JPMorgan believes overall Pro lineup demand volumes may decline year over year.
  • The tracker compiles delivery and in-store pickup dates from Apple's websites across regions each week and calculates wait times using the average dates for different models in each region; it is a proxy indicator for supply and demand.

Why does the Duo still have a wait until next year?

  • The Duo's estimated delivery date remained 25 January 2027 in the United States and Europe and 23 January in China; in-store pickup remained unavailable in all regions.
  • JPMorgan believes Duo demand is exceptionally strong relative to supply plans, which could challenge supply chain visibility for the foldable device. The bank expects demand for the higher-priced Duo, together with Pro lineup price increases, to drive iPhone revenue growth.

How do supply and demand signals differ across major markets?

  • The US Pro wait fell from 8 days the previous week to 4 days; the Pro Max remained at 21 days, 7 days longer than the previous generation in the same week. The US is the only market among the regions tracked where the Pro Max wait is still longer than its predecessor's at the same point, and accounts for approximately 34% of iPhone shipments.
  • The Pro is now available for same-day delivery in China, while the Pro Max wait is 15 days, down 7 days from the previous week; all versions of both models are available for in-store pickup. China accounts for approximately 19% of iPhone shipments.
  • In Germany and the UK, waits for both Pro models shortened from the previous week and were below those for the previous generation in the same week; Pro Max waits were 14 days and 12 days, respectively.