Bernstein: Bristol Myers Squibb beats third-quarter expectations as new drug pipeline takes over from Eliquis revenue gap

Why did profit still fall year over year despite a third-quarter beat?

Bristol Myers Squibb reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of 13.1 billion dollars, up 7% year over year and 2.7% above consensus. Non-GAAP earnings per share were 1.35 dollars, about 19% above consensus but below 1.63 dollars a year earlier.
The growth portfolio generated 7.7 billion dollars in revenue, up 12% year over year. Growth in Eliquis also offset some generic erosion affecting older products. Meanwhile, acquired in-process research and development costs, net of licensing income, reduced earnings per share by 0.58 dollars.
The company raised its 2026 revenue guidance to 49.75 billion–50.25 billion dollars. Non-GAAP earnings per share guidance was 6.35–6.55 dollars, down from 6.75–7.00 dollars previously. Excluding the acquired in-process research and development and licensing effects above, the guidance midpoint would have risen by about 0.15 dollars.

Eliquis generated approximately 4.7 billion dollars in third-quarter revenue, up 26% year over year, driven by growth in net selling price, demand and market share. However, its European patent protection is expected to expire in mid-November, and the company expects 2027 revenue to be 1.5 billion–2 billion dollars lower than in 2026.
Management believes eight growth portfolio products with annualized revenue above 1 billion dollars, the late-stage pipeline and a 2 billion-dollar efficiency program scheduled for completion by the end of 2027 can help address this change.
Bernstein raised its 2026 revenue forecast from 50 billion to 50.4 billion dollars and, on expectations of lower research and development and selling and administrative expenses, raised its non-GAAP earnings per share forecast from 6.37 to 6.51 dollars. It maintained its market-perform rating and 61-dollar price target.

Bernstein sees the Phase III trial of Milvexian in atrial fibrillation, with results expected in the first quarter of 2027, as a major catalyst. The trial first tests whether it is non-inferior to Eliquis in preventing stroke and systemic embolism; after that primary endpoint is met, it will test whether bleeding outcomes are superior.
The upper bound of the non-inferiority margin is 1.37, a relatively wide threshold. Management expects the initial press release to provide some quantitative information on the non-inferiority results, with detailed data reserved for a subsequent scientific meeting.
The company believes its existing Eliquis commercial team can support Milvexian sales and expects filing and launch timing to be close to the expiry of Eliquis’s US patent protection in April 2028. Bernstein considers the schedule tight, with market access negotiations also needed against a backdrop of falling Eliquis prices.

Cobenfy generated just 57 million dollars in third-quarter revenue: inventory drawdowns offset demand growth, while total prescriptions rose approximately 3%–4% sequentially. Management noted continuing gaps in new patient starts, repeat prescriptions and attainment of effective doses, and expects further revenue ramp-up to await the launch of future indications.
Results from the ADEPT-1, 2 and 4 trials for psychosis symptoms associated with Alzheimer’s disease are expected throughout 2027; two positive results are needed to support a filing. ADEPT-1 was delayed because psychosis relapse events accumulated more slowly than expected, while the other two were delayed by slower enrollment. Results from the BALSAM trial in bipolar I disorder are expected in the first half of 2027, potentially ahead of ADEPT.
In a Phase III study of another candidate, Admilparant, in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, the 60-milligram dose met the primary endpoint, but the improvement in lung function decline at the 120-milligram dose did not reach statistical significance. Bernstein questioned the absence of a dose-response relationship; results in progressive pulmonary fibrosis are expected in the first quarter of 2027.