Goldman Sachs: Hansoh Pharma maintains double-digit growth guidance for 2026, targets 30 innovative drugs by 2030

What supports near-term growth?

Management maintains its double-digit revenue growth guidance for fiscal 2026 and expects double-digit growth in both product sales and business development (BD) revenue.
Existing innovative drugs continue to grow: flumatinib, Heng Mu, Fulai Mei and semaglutide each grew by more than 30% in the first half of 2026. Management believes sales of marketed innovative drugs are still far from their peak.
Management's sales target for core product Ameile is RMB 8 billion by 2030; if future combination therapy strategies are taken into account, sales could reach RMB 10 billion.

The company reiterated its target of having 30 marketed innovative drugs by 2030, up from 9 currently. Management expects 5 new products to be approved in 2027 and plans to submit 8 to 10 investigational new drug applications and launch multiple phase III trials each year.
A marketing application has been submitted for an injectable GLP-1/GIP drug, which the company expects to launch in 2027. Promotion will use the existing endocrinology hospital sales network while expanding retail channels.
Goldman Sachs expects BD revenue to grow steadily, with B7-H3-related milestone payments and future sales royalties becoming an increasingly important source of contributions from 2029 onward.

Biologics license applications for the B7-H3 ADC risvutatug rezetecan in two indications, small-cell lung cancer and osteosarcoma, are under review in China.
In a first-in-human phase I study, the EGFR/c-MET bispecific ADC HS-20122 achieved an objective response rate of 61.3% and a six-month progression-free survival rate of 75.3% in patients with EGFR-mutated non-small-cell lung cancer whose EGFR inhibitor treatment had failed. The data remain early, and cross-trial comparisons require caution.
Another CDH17 ADC, HS-20110, is undergoing a phase Ib study in China; the company also primarily positions its EGFR/c-MET bispecific antibody for use in combination with Ameile in first-line treatment of non-small-cell lung cancer and is exploring other indications.

Goldman Sachs rates Hansoh Pharma Buy, with a 12-month price target of HK$52.70. Its sum-of-the-parts valuation includes a discounted cash flow value of HK$287 billion for the innovative drug business and a value of HK$32.6 billion for the generics business, calculated at 10 times expected 2026 earnings.
Risks listed by Goldman Sachs include lower-than-expected generic drug sales following volume-based procurement, slower sales ramp-up after new drug launches, setbacks in innovative drug R&D, and lower-than-expected revenue from global pipeline collaborations.