Goldman Sachs: Orelabrutinib supports InnoCare Pharma’s near-term growth as immunology R&D opens up long-term opportunities

What is supporting near-term growth?

Management reiterated confidence in approximately 35% product sales growth in 2026, driven mainly by continued new patient uptake of orelabrutinib in first-line chronic lymphocytic leukemia and small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL) following its inclusion in medical insurance coverage, and by increased penetration in marginal zone lymphoma (MZL).
The company believes growth in first-line CLL/SLL patients and expanded coverage in lower-tier cities can support growth in 2027; improved MZL diagnosis could also expand the treatable patient population.
A new drug application for orelabrutinib to treat immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) has been submitted, and the company aims for approval in the first half of 2027. If launched, it can largely use the existing hematology commercial team.

The company is preparing for a potential launch of soficitinib in 2028. As initial indications focus on dermatology, it plans to begin building a dedicated team at the end of 2027 to establish a commercial foundation for a broader autoimmune business.
Goldman Sachs forecasts revenue of 2.937 billion yuan for 2027, above its 2026 forecast of 2.851 billion yuan. Over the same period, EBITDA is expected to fall from 502 million yuan to 125.5 million yuan, and earnings per share from 0.42 yuan to 0.15 yuan, showing that revenue growth and profit metrics are moving in different directions.

Management believes complex autoimmune diseases such as inflammatory bowel disease involve multiple immune pathways, leaving limited scope to improve efficacy with treatments targeting a single pathway. The company is therefore developing ICP-B161, a bispecific antibody that acts on both TL1A and IL-23p19.
The company believes dual-pathway inhibition could improve efficacy, while the bispecific design may also reduce aggregation and anti-drug antibody issues seen with some TL1A antibodies. The first patient has been dosed, and preliminary phase one data are expected in the first half of 2027.
Other early-stage projects include targeted degradation of VAV1, which is involved in T- and B-cell signaling, and an oral drug that inhibits both IL-17A and IL-17F. If the latter achieves comparable pharmacological activity, it could become an oral alternative that is easier to scale; indications for the VAV1 project are still being explored.

In China, a registrational phase three trial of mesutoclax plus orelabrutinib for first-line CLL/SLL has completed enrollment. The company guides for the trial to be completed in the first half of 2027, followed by data publication and a marketing application. Another registrational phase three trial in first-line acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is underway.
The overseas AML program is expanding from patients who relapsed after prior treatment or were refractory to treatment to first-line patients, and global development partnerships are being explored. A global phase two study in myelodysplastic syndromes is also underway, with updated data expected at the 2026 American Society of Hematology annual meeting.
Under the Lilly partnership, InnoCare Pharma is responsible for advancing projects to the preclinical candidate stage, after which Lilly handles toxicology, preparations for clinical trial applications and subsequent global development. The partners have jointly identified two targets to date. Goldman Sachs believes this demonstrates the company’s early-stage molecular design capabilities and provides a way to participate in global innovation while conserving capital.
Goldman Sachs rates both the A-shares and H-shares Buy, with 12-month price targets of 38.68 yuan and 23.16 Hong Kong dollars, respectively. Its key risks include R&D for key clinical assets, drug pricing, potential competition from generic ibrutinib in China in 2027, and slower-than-expected global expansion.