Bernstein: Server demand supports memory price increases, while NAND wafer spot prices accelerate their decline

How strong will DRAM price increases be in the fourth quarter?

Based on weighted October contract data, Bernstein estimates that conventional DRAM prices in the fourth quarter of 2026 will rise 8.3% from the third quarter, slightly above the firm's forecast but potentially below the latest expectations of 10%–15%. By application, PC and server DRAM prices are expected to rise about 12% and 11%, respectively, while mobile DRAM prices are expected to rise only about 2%.
This estimate excludes high-bandwidth memory (HBM). Since HBM prices are primarily set by annual contracts and are relatively stable, and product mixes differ among manufacturers, the increases in average selling prices that companies actually report may vary.

PC shipments continue to contract, and PC DRAM inventory reached 7–10 weeks in October; phone makers have also lowered shipment targets and days of inventory have risen, leaving little urgency in procurement negotiations. But server demand is sufficient to absorb capacity freed up by PCs and phones, keeping the overall market in short supply.
Server pricing is also constrained: cloud service providers' long-term agreements set price caps, while server equipment manufacturers generally accept price increases of 15%–20%, driving up overall server DRAM prices in the fourth quarter.
Spot market signals are mixed: in October, spot prices for server DDR 5 modules fell 1.7% quarter over quarter, but were still 80% above contract prices. Bernstein believes the decline is more likely related to downstream distributors adjusting their inventories.

In October, NAND wafer spot prices fell another 12% quarter over quarter, and were 19%–39% below contract prices; wafer contract prices were flat with September, as weaker consumer demand led module makers to continue cutting orders.
A sample consisting only of wafers and mobile storage products points to a 3% quarter-over-quarter rise in NAND prices in the fourth quarter. But enterprise SSDs already account for more than half of total NAND revenue, and Bernstein expects their contract prices to rise by more than 20% quarter over quarter in the fourth quarter; including them could bring the overall NAND price increase to about 15%.
TrendForce expects mobile NAND contract prices to rise 5%–9% quarter over quarter in the fourth quarter; as device manufacturers take longer to work through inventories and new capacity comes online, price increases will slow further in the first quarter of 2027.

Bernstein expects the memory shortage to continue in 2027 and prices to remain high, but price caps in long-term agreements and the high memory costs borne by AI and non-AI applications will limit scope for further increases.
The firm believes enterprise SSD demand could keep NAND in short supply through most of 2027, but weakening wafer prices and slower price increases in mobile also indicate that the NAND shortage may be less severe than the DRAM shortage and that prices may peak sooner. Competitive pressure from YMTC's growth makes the firm more cautious about NAND's long-term outlook.