Global freight remains strong: pressure from ocean capacity expansion rises, while air freight and US surface transport have distinct sources of support

How strong are ocean shipping demand and freight rates?

Global container shipping volumes grew 3.8% year on year in August 2026, but performance varied by route: trans-Pacific volumes grew 11%, intra-Asia volumes grew 8%, and Asia-to-Europe volumes fell 2%. Overall demand is resilient, but not all routes are expanding simultaneously.
As of the report, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) and the World Container Index (WCI) were 175% and 129% above pre-conflict levels respectively, though both were slightly below their levels a month earlier. Demand, surcharges and port congestion together support high freight rates; although congestion has eased seasonally, it continues to constrain supply-chain operations.
Bernstein therefore expects Maersk to raise guidance further when it reports third-quarter results. This assessment reflects the support current freight rates provide to operations and coexists with the firm's concerns about medium-term excess capacity.

The container ship orderbook rose from 38% of the active fleet in the second quarter to 42%; over the past three months, the orderbook increased from 12.9 million to 14.2 million TEU, with new orders again exceeding the capacity absorbed by new vessel deliveries. Maersk also recently ordered approximately 500 thousand TEU of capacity.
Another source of supply is the restoration of shipping routes. Suez Canal traffic has doubled to 50% of its 2023 level and continues to rise; fewer diversions will release effective capacity previously tied up on longer voyages, putting downward pressure on freight rates once networks stabilise.
Bernstein expects the fleet to grow 7% in 2027 and 13% in 2028. With new ships and restored routes adding capacity together, shipping lines must materially control capacity or port bottlenecks must persist to avoid a sharp correction in freight rates. The firm believes the industry typically does not impose meaningful supply discipline until balance sheets come under pressure, and therefore maintains its Underperform rating on Maersk.

Chargeable air freight weight tracked by the report grew at a mid-single-digit rate year on year, while industry revenue grew approximately 30% year on year; the revenue increase came mainly from fuel, insurance and war-related surcharges lifting revenue per unit. Current freight rates are approximately 30% above pre-conflict levels, also supported by some ocean freight shifting to air.
Demand growth spans multiple regions, but capacity at major Middle Eastern airlines is already close to normal, and unit revenue on China-to-Europe routes has fallen as a result. This shows that, despite overall strength, some routes are already feeling the effect of capacity returning.
The link to benefits for express operators is more direct: more expensive alternative air cargo capacity supports their pricing, while improved pass-through of fuel surcharges helps them recover higher fuel costs.

Bernstein attributes the improvement in rates for US full-truckload road transport and domestic intermodal transport mainly to tighter supply. Stricter regulatory enforcement, combined with high fuel costs, is forcing out trucking carriers whose profitability has long been under pressure; even if oil prices fall, the capacity that has already exited makes some of the impact more persistent.
On the demand side, manufacturing indicators and shipper sentiment have improved, but consumer-oriented areas such as housing remain weak, so the firm expects the recovery to remain supply-driven for now. A Supreme Court ruling on freight broker liability could also further reduce available capacity, although it will take time to flow through to freight rates.