Original source：Evercore ISIFirst published on Unhidea：Original source date：
Key takeaway
Evercore ISI gave the start of Duo preorders a positive assessment, but the approximately 100-day delivery time is also influenced by supply. Whether delivery schedules remain lengthy as shipments ramp up will be key to assessing the durability of demand.
What happened to delivery times on the first day of Duo preorders?
iPhone Duo opened for preorders on 16 October and is scheduled to launch officially on 23 October. On the first day of preorders, delivery dates quickly moved from 16 November to 23 November, then slipped to 23 January–25 of the following year, bringing the wait to about 100 days.
The delays covered every region and configuration tracked by Evercore ISI: the shortest waits were 101 days in the US, UK and Germany, and 99 days in China and Japan. Because the long delivery times were not concentrated in any single region or configuration, the firm concluded that the new phone had attracted broad initial interest.
Pro series delivery times have shortened. How should the difference from Duo be understood?
As of 16 October, the shortest delivery wait for iPhone 18 Pro was 10 days in the US, UK and Germany, unchanged from the previous week; it fell from 8 to 4 days in China and from 11 to 8 days in Japan. Evercore ISI interpreted the broadly stable or shorter delivery times for the Pro series as a sign that Apple was working through launch orders.
The change was more pronounced for Pro Max: the wait in the US fell from 24 days the previous week to 17 days, the largest decline among the tracked regions and models; Japan fell from 20 to 17 days, while China and the UK remained at 15 and 17 days, respectively. Germany rose from 17 to 18 days, making it the only Pro Max market where the wait lengthened.
Pro Max waits remained longer than Pro waits in all tracked regions. The latest data therefore show rapidly lengthening Duo preorder schedules and the gradual fulfillment of Pro series launch orders, while Pro Max remains harder to obtain quickly than Pro.
How strong a demand assessment can an approximately 100-day wait support?
Evercore ISI believes Duo is off to a favorable start for Apple, but long delivery times are determined by both demand and supply: strong demand can extend schedules, and a limited initial quantity available for delivery can produce the same result. The firm believes initial supply conditions are also likely playing a role.
The key going forward is whether delivery dates continue to imply a long wait after Apple expands shipments, and whether stores can offer an earlier purchase option. These two variables determine the extent to which current online delivery schedules reflect sustained demand and customers’ actual waiting times.
Based on this tracking, Evercore ISI maintained its Outperform rating and 380-dollar price target for Apple. The conclusion is a positive assessment of the new product’s initial performance; neither the rating nor the price target was changed.
