Original source：风口研报First published on Unhidea：Original source date：
Key takeaway
The recent value proposition of dividend assets has weakened, while their medium- to long-term appeal comes from dividends and allocation demand. Further improvement in polyester filament profitability depends on cost pass-through and whether production cuts can continue to ease inventory pressure.
How attractive are dividend assets after their rally?
Dividend assets have risen markedly since July. Guosen Securities says the CSI Dividend Index’s current trailing 12-month dividend yield is 4.6%, at the 13.9% percentile of its range over the past five years. This indicates that dividend appeal is low compared with recent years, although it remains in the middle-to-upper range over a longer period.
The firm believes that investors still have demand to allocate to dividend assets in a low-interest-rate environment. Historically, buying within a valuation margin of safety has also produced considerable long-term returns, so these assets remain attractive over the medium to long term.
What support might portfolio allocation provide?
Guosen Securities believes institutional allocations to dividend assets may still be low. In the third quarter, foreign investors shifted toward rebalancing their holdings, increasing dividend allocations and reducing technology and growth allocations overall.
The firm also noted that insurers’ holdings of electronics and telecommunications stocks as a share of their portfolios have fallen by about one-fifth from their peak, and dividend assets may be a direction for future portfolio adjustments.
Why have rising oil prices not crushed polyester filament profits?
Polyester filament is a petroleum-based chemical product. Crude oil prices pass through intermediates including PX, PTA and MEG to filament, and the supply chain primarily uses cost-plus pricing. Oil prices have risen since 2026, pushing up costs, but the filament segment has maintained relatively strong production and sales with manageable inventories.
According to CCF Chemical Fiber Information Network, the processing spread for polyester filament POY generally remained above 1500 yuan per tonne in 2026, corresponding to a profit of about 400 yuan per tonne, a marked improvement on previous years.
Production cuts improve profitability, but what pressure remains on demand?
From month 1 through August of 2026, polyester filament output and apparent consumption fell 5.1% and 5.8% year on year, respectively. Downstream weaving companies reduced inventories and stocking in response to oil price volatility, while filament producers eased the inventory accumulation pressure passed upstream by cutting production.
Analysts at Changjiang Securities believe downstream inventories of greige fabric are already at historical lows, leaving limited room for further destocking. If the final round of downstream pressure is gradually absorbed, leading companies with scale and cost advantages could benefit. Related companies include Tongkun Group and Xinfengming Group.
