Kioxia price target adjusted to ¥43334 after stock split; JPMorgan earnings forecasts unchanged
JPMorgan adjusted its price target for Kioxia to reflect a three-for-one stock split, maintaining its Overweight rating and earnings forecasts. The bank is positive on enterprise SSD demand, low costs and economies of scale from the joint venture, while highlighting NAND supply-demand and pricing risks.
Original source：J.P. MorganFirst published on Unhidea：Original source date：
Key takeaway
The reduction in Kioxia’s price target reflects the change in share count from a three-for-one split. JPMorgan remains positive on earnings growth driven by enterprise SSD demand and cost advantages.
Why was the price target reduced to ¥43334?
JPMorgan adjusted its December 2027 price target for Kioxia from ¥130000 per share to ¥43334 to reflect the three-for-one stock split effective 1 October 2026. The bank said its earnings forecasts remain unchanged and maintained its Overweight rating.
After the stock split, the adjusted earnings per share forecast for fiscal 2027 changed from ¥10643.88 to ¥3547.96, a decline of approximately 66.7% reflecting the change in the per-share basis. The share price listed in the report was ¥12755 on 23 October 2026.
Why is JPMorgan positive on Kioxia’s growth?
The bank expects generative AI to drive server storage demand, increasing demand for enterprise SSDs, improving Kioxia’s product mix and enabling it to grow faster than its peers.
The bank believes cost control and technologies such as CBA, the OPS architecture and QLC help maintain a lower cost per bit, supporting margins. Large-scale capital investment through its joint venture with SanDisk is expected to enhance economies of scale and returns on investment.
These advantages, combined with operating leverage, underpin JPMorgan’s forecast that Kioxia’s revenue and profit will grow faster than the overall NAND market.
What growth and margins does the earnings model depend on?
JPMorgan forecasts revenue of ¥10.24 trillion for the fiscal year ending in March 2027, up 338.1% from actual revenue of ¥2.34 trillion in the previous fiscal year. It expects the operating margin to rise from 37.2% to 78.1%.
The bank forecasts net profit of ¥5.83 trillion for the same period, compared with the previous fiscal year’s actual figure of ¥554.5 billion. These forecasts reflect its expectations for both revenue expansion and margin improvement.
What changes could affect this assessment?
JPMorgan believes upside could come from AI demand exceeding expectations and remaining strong, continued disciplined investment across the industry, and SSDs gaining share in the nearline hard drive market.
Conversely, slowing AI demand, aggressive capacity expansion worsening supply-demand conditions, or a sharp rise in NAND prices suppressing demand could all reduce earnings. Delays in new product development and a semiconductor downturn are also among the risks cited by the bank.
