Accelevation: Modular delivery supports rapid growth; profitability and cash flow are expected to turn in 2027

Why does Goldman Sachs favor this data-center supplier?

Goldman Sachs expects Accelevation’s revenue to rise from $448 million in 2025 to $2.403 billion in 2028, and adjusted EBITDA to rise from $91 million to $502 million. It initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a 12-month price target of $22, focusing on profitability after expansion.
The company focuses on power supply, support structures and cooling systems inside server rooms. Higher AI rack density makes these facilities more reliant on customization and coordination; its integrated design, manufacturing and installation model can reduce delays caused by coordination among multiple suppliers.

Goldman Sachs expects the data-center market addressable by the company to grow by about 30% annually through 2030, but the growth thesis also includes market share gains: its model assumes share rises from 2.0% in 2025 to 5.2% in 2030.
The link is early involvement in customer designs. The company has provided foundational designs for at least three major cloud providers, and its SkyBridge system could become a standard configuration for subsequent expansions across multiple campuses, enabling repeat deployments; an order backlog of about $1.111 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2026 supports near-term revenue.
Delivery capacity is also expanding: manufacturing space grew from less than 170 thousand square feet at the beginning of 2025 to about 1.1 million square feet in June 2026, with another 286 thousand square feet of expansion scheduled to come online in 2027. But the two largest customers accounted for about 60% of revenue in 2025, and delays to major customer projects would directly affect the pace of growth.

Traditional approaches rely on on-site construction and are vulnerable to expensive labor and construction schedules. The company estimates that moving work into a factory can reduce fully loaded hourly labor costs by about 48% and shorten on-site installation time by up to 84%; labor cost savings and shorter completion times are two distinct benefits.
The improvement has a transition period. Goldman Sachs expects gross margin to fall from 32.3% in 2025 to 28.5% in 2026, and adjusted EBITDA margin to fall from 20.3% to 17.4%. Only after low-margin on-site construction contracts roll off in 2026 will factory efficiency, in-house material production and purchasing scale gradually drive a recovery.
Goldman Sachs expects gross margin to rise to 33.3% and adjusted EBITDA margin to 22.4% in 2030, also relying on administrative expenses growing more slowly than revenue. Materials purchases account for about 55%–60% of cost of sales; if price increases cannot be passed on, margin improvement will come under pressure.

Goldman Sachs expects revenue to grow 101.7% in 2026, but free cash flow to remain negative at -$18.2 million; working capital is expected to absorb about $100 million that year, and growth will still require cash support.
Its model projects free cash flow turning positive to $148 million in 2027 and rising to $299 million in 2028. The key conditions are capital expenditure falling to about 1%–1.5% of revenue after capacity expansion and margins improving at the same time; net debt to EBITDA is expected to decline from 2.8 times in 2026 to 0.3 times in 2028.

Goldman Sachs derives its price target by applying a 13-times multiple to aggregate EBITDA for the 5th through 8th quarters ahead, equivalent to 10.7 times 2028 EBITDA. Its benchmark, Forgent, trades at about 11 times 2027 EBITDA; the two multiples refer to earnings in different years.
The discount reflects an operating gap: Goldman Sachs expects Accelevation’s EBITDA margin in 2027 to be 20.0%, below its peer’s 23.7%. Faster growth comes from a smaller base, while Forgent already has stronger margins and a track record of execution since listing, so Goldman Sachs assigns no growth premium.