Why did indices surge while sentiment failed to strengthen in tandem?
- After half past 1 p.m. on 4 November, trading volumes rose simultaneously in several broad-market ETFs, and indices climbed rapidly. Cailian Press observed that large investors dominated the buying, with quantitative funds following afterward.
- Sentiment diverged from index performance: some sentiment-driven stocks recovered alongside the indices late in the session, but showed limited independent momentum. Cailian Press believes a transition in market styles is still likely and that it is unrealistic to expect the indices to turn directly into an intermediate-term rebound in the short term. The transition could last another 4 to 5 trading days.
Which areas showed stronger independent momentum in the rebound?
- Technology stocks strengthened across the board, with chips and semiconductors showing relatively strong momentum in the morning. In computing-power hardware, Cailian Press is focusing on upstream indium phosphide.
- Robotics and new energy moved in the same direction as the indices and showed strong momentum, although the strength in new energy was also related to the US midterm elections. Cailian Press considers robotics relatively stronger.
- The consumer sector showed the greatest divergence on the day, in contrast to technology stocks. Cailian Press believes consumer stocks could replace banks as the main defensive destination for capital during the transition over the coming period.
What business developments emerged from tracking key companies?
- In semiconductor equipment components, Tolerance's order backlog exceeded 600 million yuan as of late October 2026, up 93% from the end of June. Naura Technology Group and Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment together account for more than eighty percent of its revenue, and the purchasing pace of downstream equipment customers is particularly important to the company.
- In robotics, Zhenghe Industrial has delivered its miniature chain systems in small batches to customers including AgiBot. The company plans to allocate 153 million yuan raised through a private placement specifically to miniature chain research, development and manufacturing.
- In indium phosphide, Cailian Press cited Lumentum as forecasting that approximately 70% of demand for certain products would remain unmet in 2027, even with continued capacity expansion. Guangzhi Technology has delivered indium phosphide products in volume and received an order for its 6-inch substrates from a leading global customer. Annual capacity of 1 million 6-inch substrates is a longer-term plan.