How will this year’s bumper harvest change supply and demand?

  • The market has already priced in expectations of a bumper harvest: as of the report date, Arabica coffee prices were down about 10% year to date, and Robusta was down about 15%. Goldman Sachs expects the global spot market to move into surplus in the 2026/27 season.
  • The US Department of Agriculture estimates Brazil’s 2026 Arabica output at 47.5 million bags, up about 25% year on year; Vietnam’s Robusta output is forecast at 31.4 million bags, up about 3% year on year. Each bag contains 60 kilograms of green coffee beans.
  • The US Department of Agriculture forecasts that global coffee production will exceed consumption by about 10 million bags in the 2026/27 season, equivalent to approximately 6% of consumption.

Why could futures still surge when spot supplies are plentiful?

  • Only a small proportion of the world’s coffee meets the requirements for delivery against ICE futures. Certified stocks are coffee that can be delivered under exchange standards; when stocks are insufficient, nearby contracts can still surge even if coffee is available elsewhere.
  • ICE-certified Arabica stocks fell to 218 thousand bags in September, their lowest since 1999; at the time of the report, they stood at about 228 thousand bags, well below the October average of approximately 1.3 million bags over the past 10 years. Goldman Sachs believes low stocks could push nearby prices above deferred prices and intensify nearby volatility.
  • A bumper harvest may not replenish stocks quickly: spot sale prices are currently better than exchange delivery prices, and some Brazilian beans may fail to meet ICE quality requirements because of rain during harvest. About 78% of certified Arabica stocks are “transition-period” coffee stored at EU ports; under the EU’s anti-deforestation rules, they may face a delivery discount from 2027 onward.

Where do next season’s supply risks come from?

  • Brazilian Arabica typically enters a lower-output off-year after a bumper harvest. From 1 September 2026 to 1 October, cumulative rainfall in the main producing regions was about 207% above the average for the same period in 2016–2025. Excess rain may cause uneven flowering, further reducing production potential in the 2027/28 season.
  • Vietnam’s risk lies in irrigation water. Goldman Sachs notes that a super El Niño has depleted groundwater; if water levels do not recover before December 2026, farmers may face water shortages as they enter the dry season from December to April of the following year, affecting Robusta flowering and the next harvest. A similar situation followed the 2023–2024 El Niño.
  • Coffee takes several months to mature after flowering, and the market often begins assessing the next season’s weather and output before harvest. As a result, an improvement in this season’s supply and risks to the following season can affect prices at the same time.