Bernstein: India’s innovative-drug market expands, with GSK and Pfizer offering better growth prospects than Abbott

How is the growth mix of India’s pharmaceutical market changing?

Bernstein expects India’s domestic biopharmaceutical market to grow from about 27.2 billion dollars in FY25 to about 42.3 billion dollars in FY30; chronic-disease treatments are expected to rise from about 39% to 47% of sales over the same period. Heart-disease and diabetes medicines together account for about one-third of the market’s incremental growth during this period.
A substantial number of patients with chronic diseases remain undiagnosed or untreated. Better diagnosis and wider access to specialty services could turn some of these patients into sources of medicine demand. The firm’s patient-disease model estimates that, by FY31, India’s patient population could support about 10 billion dollars in market opportunities for innovative drug launches.
Competition in chronic-disease and specialty medicines depends not only on prescription volume, but also on the ability to identify patients, reach specialists and keep patients on treatment. This favors companies with differentiated products and specialist sales networks, although patient affordability and access to treatment affect conversion.

India is taking part in global drug development earlier. Bernstein calculates that the share of Pfizer’s global Phase III trial registrations that included Indian trial sites rose from about 12% in 2015–2019 to about 23% in 2021–2025; GSK’s share rose from about 7% to 17% over the same periods. Across the six high-value drugs screened by the firm, the median interval from approval in major markets to approval in India was about 17 months.
Parent companies provide the R&D pipeline, while listed subsidiaries in India must handle local approvals, patient education and specialist sales. Whether a product is included in a listed company’s forecasts also depends on local commercialization rights and where the returns accrue; many of Pfizer Group’s oncology and rare-disease products, for example, are held by private entities in India.
Bernstein rates GSK India and Pfizer India Outperform, with price targets of 3,430 and 4,424 Indian rupees, respectively. It rates Abbott India Market Perform, with a price target of 24,851 Indian rupees.

GSK India is broadening its growth drivers through adult vaccines and respiratory and oncology medicines. Bernstein expects its revenue to grow about 15% in FY27, up from about 2% in FY26; revenue is expected to approach 65 billion Indian rupees in FY30, with the EBITDA margin holding at around 35%.
Respiratory drug Trelegy continued to gain share after generic competition entered the market: India’s single-inhaler triple-therapy market expanded by about 60% from the first quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026. The firm believes the device’s ease of use helps retain prescriptions, but the company still needs to address competition through physician engagement and patient access.
GSK’s oncology growth also depends on building treatment capacity. Blenrep requires infusion facilities and eye monitoring; adult vaccine sales depend on physician recommendations, patients’ willingness to pay and ease of vaccination.
The listed Pfizer business’s vaccines and hospital medicines are growing, but Minipress XL exited in September 2026, leaving a near-term revenue gap. The product had market sales of 2.286 billion rupees in the trailing 12 months through July 2026. Bernstein expects several products to add a combined 3.24 billion rupees in revenue from FY26 to FY28; the two figures use different measurement bases, and replacement revenue will take time to build.

Abbott India still relies mainly on mature brands. Its annual number of new product launches fell from 10 in FY23 to 5 in FY26. Of the 30 new products launched over four years, 22 were extensions of existing brands, and some sales may simply represent a shift between the company’s existing products.
Bernstein expects revenue from diabetes drug Extensior to rise from 50 million rupees in FY26 to 2.1 billion rupees in FY28, but by then it would account for only about 2.5% of company sales. The drug is manufactured by Novo Nordisk and sold by Abbott India; the commercial margin retained determines how much of the revenue growth translates into profit.
Mature brands are also under pressure: Duphaston’s sales share of the dydrogesterone market fell from about 40% over the trailing 12 months as of December 2022 to about 25% as of March 2025, as lower-priced competitors forced the company to devote resources to defending prescriptions. Bernstein expects revenue to grow at a CAGR of 9.6% from FY26 to FY28, but spending on defending brands and promoting new products will bring the operating EBITDA margin down from 27.3% to 26.8%.