J.P. Morgan: Roblox platform activity falls week over week as popular games continue to cool

How did platform activity change?

In the tracking week ended 2 November, Roblox’s peak concurrent users fell to 25 million, down 7% from 26.9 million a week earlier. Average weekday activity, however, rose 6% week over week, compared with no change the previous week.
Over a longer window, the platform’s average peak concurrent users in October fell 12% year over year, a narrower decline than the 17% drop in September. This indicates an improvement in the year-over-year trend, though the figure remained below the same period a year earlier.
JPMorgan’s analysis showed that activity in long-tail content outside the top titles also fell approximately 7% week over week, indicating that the decline was not confined to the most popular games.

Peak concurrent users for Steal An Egg fell for a sixth consecutive week, from 9.7 million the previous week to 8.4 million. Activity continued to decline even after the game released a major Halloween update and added live performances.
Other popular experiences also saw notable declines: Ride a Pet’s peak fell from about 400 thousand to 300 thousand, while Break and Steal an Egg fell from 1.3 million to about 400 thousand.

JPMorgan believes the company’s fourth-quarter bookings guidance may be conservative: it assumes no new breakout games and no improvement in monetization, while factoring in a modest headwind from the release of Grand Theft Auto VI.
On costs, the bank expects the company’s investment in growth initiatives to bring a year-over-year increase in AI training-related infrastructure costs in 2027. Spending on paid user acquisition is expected to remain high, although the pace of spending may decline quarter over quarter in the fourth quarter. An improving bookings trend could spread fixed costs over a larger base over time.
JPMorgan maintained its Neutral rating and December 2027 price target of 46 dollars. The bank sees long-term growth opportunities for the platform, but safety initiatives, slowing growth in daily active users and activity, changes to content discovery algorithms, and margin compression continue to constrain its rating.