Morgan Stanley: North American freight automation advances as logistics companies beat third-quarter earnings expectations

How far are autonomous trucks from commercial operations?

Kodiak says its long-haul driverless readiness metric reached 99% as of 30 October, up from 96% in September and 84% in February, putting it ahead of its target to begin driverless highway operations by the end of 2026.
After completing its safety case, the company plans to begin driverless deliveries for IKEA on the 219-mile route from Dallas to Houston. It has also signed a binding agreement with DTL Transport for 75 trucks: DTL will own and operate the vehicles, while Kodiak will charge a technology service fee based on miles driven.
Morgan Stanley forecasts that Kodiak will have a 8% share of the autonomous truck market in 2041; for now, the IKEA route can launch only after the safety case is completed.

GXO plans to deploy Agility Robotics’ Digit robots at warehouses in North Carolina and Tennessee in the United States from early 2027 to handle repetitive material-moving tasks in e-commerce fulfillment. The partners’ existing project in Georgia has already moved more than 100 thousand totes in live operations.
C.H. Robinson is expanding Lean AI to ocean and air freight quotes, ocean booking and customs clearance. The company says AI has generated more than 80 thousand ocean and air freight quotes for over 3600 customers, reducing quote turnaround times from about a day for air freight and two to three days for ocean freight to two or three minutes.
AI agents in customs clearance handle document classification, data extraction and requests for missing documents. The company says the time required for these processes has fallen by 23%. The ocean booking agent was launched in China in August, with plans to expand to more parts of Asia in the fourth quarter of 2026 and a goal of global availability in the first quarter of 2027.

RXO’s third-quarter revenue rose 31.7% year over year, 1% above Morgan Stanley’s estimate; EBITDA was 51 million dollars, above the bank’s estimate of 45 million dollars. Brokerage volumes rose 2% year over year.
The spot market’s share of RXO’s truckload business rose from 42% in the second quarter to 51% in the third, driving a 31% quarter-over-quarter increase in gross profit per load.
C.H. Robinson’s adjusted third-quarter earnings per share were 1.80 dollars, above Morgan Stanley’s estimate of 1.61 dollars and the market consensus of 1.75 dollars; operating income rose 10% year over year, North American Surface Transportation volumes increased 3.5% year over year, and adjusted gross profit per truckload shipment rose 17%.
The company maintained its 2026 operating income guidance of 964 million to 1.04 billion dollars, but raised its expense expectations primarily because of higher claims costs. Management expects volumes to weaken seasonally in the fourth quarter, while continuing to pursue market share and benefit from AI-driven productivity gains.

C.H. Robinson’s acquisition of RXO is expected to close in the first half of 2027, subject to conditions including approval by RXO shareholders. C.H. Robinson is targeting 300 million dollars in net synergies, is suspending share repurchases while preparing for the acquisition, and plans to deleverage through 2028.
Morgan Stanley raised its 2027 earnings-per-share forecast for C.H. Robinson from 6.09 dollars to 6.17 dollars, still below the market consensus of 7.44 dollars cited in the report.
FedEx appointed former AutoZone chief financial officer Jamere Jackson as its next CFO, effective 30 November. Morgan Stanley raised its earnings-per-share forecasts for FedEx for 2026 through 2028, while also viewing the company as more dependent on parcel market conditions from 2027 onward, with competition and customers’ willingness to pay remaining sources of pressure.