Construction-stock rebound hinges on orders turning into profit; Changlan Technology’s liquid-cooling plans depend on costs and validation progress
Guosheng Securities is positive on the conversion of a cleanroom leader’s orders into profits and on opportunities in some construction stocks after their pullback. Founder Securities believes the retrofit cost of immersion liquid cooling is now close to that of cold-plate cooling, but Changlan Technology’s coolants are still undergoing validation, and its forecast profit for 2026 is below the previous year’s level.
Original source：风口研报First published on Unhidea：Original source date：
Key takeaway
The investment case for the construction names rests on order conversion and business transformation, while Changlan Technology’s incremental liquid-cooling business depends on material validation and industry scale-up; the two are at different stages of realization.
What supports the rebound in the cleanroom leader?
Guosheng Securities screens construction stocks after their pullback based on order backlog, profit realization and medium-term growth potential. Cleanroom demand is tied to wafer-fab construction and supporting mechanical and electrical engineering; overseas customer relationships and proven delivery capabilities are conditions for benefiting.
On 21 October, Intel disclosed that construction and equipment installation at Fab 62 in Arizona were advancing on all fronts, with operations expected to begin before the end of 2028. The project’s progress supports demand, but engineering demand is not realized at the same time as the factory enters operation.
Guosheng Securities forecasts that net profit attributable to shareholders at Yasha Integration for 2026–2028 will be 1.411 billion, 1.833 billion and 2.663 billion yuan, up 58%, 30% and 45% year on year, respectively. At the share price listed in the report, the corresponding P/E ratios are approximately 17, 13 and 9 times. Its valuation appeal rests on the forecast that orders will continue to convert into profits.
How far has Gaozheng Civil Explosives progressed with its transformation?
Gaozheng Civil Explosives completed the transfer of control in early September, with Tibet Geology and Mineral Exploration Group becoming its controlling shareholder. An announcement proposed expanding its core business into mining investment and development, as well as civil explosives production, sales and services; Guosheng Securities accordingly views its positioning as a mineral-resources platform favorably.
The company completed a tender for capital-operation services on 13 October; asset restructuring and fundraising are among the possible subsequent steps. Beyond the transformation expectations, the report’s table forecasts EPS of 0.56 yuan for 2026, below 0.71 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding 2026 P/E of approximately 93 times. Near-term earnings and valuation remain challenging.
How much incremental growth can Yongjin’s new materials bring?
Yongjin aims to expand its high-value-added business through titanium materials, composite metals and pre-nickel-plated materials. Its planned titanium capacity is 100 thousand tonnes per year; by the end of the first half of 2026, 35 thousand tonnes of capacity had been built, leaving a gap between planned and completed capacity.
Guosheng Securities forecasts the company’s net profit attributable to shareholders for 2026–2028 at 700 million, 900 million and 1.2 billion yuan, up 28%, 28% and 31% year on year, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of approximately 12, 10 and 7 times. A gradual ramp-up in new materials provides the operating support for this second growth curve.
How has the adoption threshold for immersion liquid cooling changed?
Founder Securities believes that rising rack power and stricter energy-efficiency and heat-recovery requirements in Europe and North America have made immersion liquid cooling more necessary in certain scenarios; the emergence of mature products has lowered the threshold for applying the technology.
The report states that in 2026, the retrofit cost of immersion liquid cooling fell to 85 thousand yuan per rack, broadly on par with cold-plate cooling. The comparison concerns retrofit costs; the narrowing cost gap creates new conditions for choosing between the two technology routes.
The brokerage expects the scale of China’s immersion liquid-cooling market to reach 206 MW in 2027, accounting for nearly 20% of the total. This underpins its view that the industry is about to scale up and provides the demand backdrop for Changlan Technology’s materials business.
How can Changlan Technology capture liquid-cooling demand, and why is profit expected to fall before rising?
On 14 April, Changlan Technology invested 30 million yuan in Yunku Intelligent, linking its own coolant-material capabilities with Yunku’s market channels. Its subsidiary Shuangjiang Energy is currently validating hydrocarbon coolants, while its silicon-based business unit is also testing and validating low-viscosity single-phase immersion silicone oil. Material validation progress directly affects the pace at which the business can be implemented.
Founder Securities is positive on a higher share of high-voltage cable accessories and expansion of the liquid-cooling business, but its model forecasts 1.53 billion yuan in revenue for 2026, up 6.22% year on year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of only 70 million yuan, down 47.82% year on year. Revenue growth and declining profit coexist; 2026 is not a year in which earnings rise alongside revenue.
The brokerage expects net profit attributable to shareholders to recover to 90 million and 147 million yuan in 2027 and 2028, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of approximately 31 and 19 times; the corresponding figure for 2026 is approximately 40 times. The decline in valuation depends mainly on the earnings recovery in the latter two years, with successful validation and scaling of liquid-cooling materials an important condition.
