Eli Lilly weight-loss drug tracker: Zepbound accounts for over half of incremental prescriptions as oral market expansion and uptake diverge

How much does Zepbound contribute to growth in the weight-loss market?

In the four weeks ended 16 October 2026, average weekly total prescriptions in the weight-loss market rose approximately 83% year over year, an increase of approximately 618 thousand prescriptions. Zepbound rose approximately 71% year over year, adding approximately 332 thousand prescriptions and accounting for approximately 54% of the market’s total year-over-year increase. It remains the main driver of expansion.
Zepbound also maintained its advantage in attracting new patients: over the same period, it accounted for approximately 76% of new low-dose prescriptions in the injectable market. JPMorgan uses this metric as a proxy for new patient starts, indicating that Zepbound’s advantage comes not only from existing patients renewing prescriptions but also from acquiring new patients.

JPMorgan favors the “market expansion” view: oral drugs target people with lower BMIs, a fear of needles or greater sensitivity to cost. Both Lilly and Novo Nordisk say approximately 80% of total oral-drug prescriptions come from patients who had not previously used this class of medication, supporting the expansion thesis.
The bank believes Zepbound’s efficacy and tolerability remain among the best in its class and expects oral drugs to have little effect on growth in its use. Early data also show no clear impact from the initial uptake of oral drugs on use of Zepbound or injectable Wegovy, or on the rate at which new patients start treatment; injectables still account for most new patients.
Expansion does not mean acceleration every week: total weekly prescriptions for oral Wegovy fell from approximately 182.1 thousand in the week of 25 September to approximately 173.1 thousand in the week of 16 October. Over the same period, Zepbound prescriptions were approximately 805.7 thousand and 805.3 thousand, respectively, remaining broadly flat.

Medicare coverage effective 1 July reduced barriers to treatment: patients do not have to try other drugs first or obtain prior authorization, and the out-of-pocket cost is 50 dollars. On that basis, JPMorgan expects rapid patient adoption, but it takes weeks to months for coverage to translate into prescriptions.
Zepbound is dispensed through the Kwikpen device in this channel, so its prescriptions can be used as a directional indicator of channel growth. Total Kwikpen prescriptions were approximately 257 thousand in the week of 16 October, well above the weekly average of approximately 74 thousand in June, but below approximately 261 thousand in the preceding week: the increase since coverage began is substantial, although prescriptions fell in the latest week.

Foundayo’s initial uptake after launch has been weaker than that of oral Wegovy. In the week of 16 October, its total prescriptions were approximately 58 thousand, down from approximately 64.3 thousand in the week of 25 September; new prescriptions also fell from approximately 53 thousand to 44.4 thousand. The market expansion trend and the uptake of Lilly’s own oral product need to be assessed separately.
JPMorgan expects Foundayo’s uptake to build gradually over the year, with promotion raising awareness among physicians and consumers as the key step. Its television advertising began in June, and the scope of promotion expanded in the third quarter, while changes in awareness take time to translate into prescription growth.