Original source：Goldman SachsFirst published on Unhidea：Original source date：
Key takeaway
TrendForce expects server demand and capacity expansion bottlenecks to support memory prices. Steep HBM price increases and an upgraded product mix will further expand industry revenue, but long-term agreements, weak consumer demand and increased supply after 2028 will affect the magnitude and duration of price increases.
Why could DRAM price increases continue into 2028?
TrendForce expects DRAM supply to remain tight throughout 2027: strong server demand and limited new supply are sufficient to support further increases in average selling prices over the next several quarters, with the upward trend potentially continuing into the first half of 2028.
Consumer demand is weak, and long-term agreements could cover 60%–70% of supply, making price increases in 2027 more moderate. However, additional demand beyond committed volumes can still be negotiated at higher prices.
How will HBM price increases change industry revenue?
TrendForce expects the blended average selling price of HBM to rise 122% year on year in 2027 to 3.7 dollars per Gb, driving industry revenue up more than 230% year on year to over 200 billion dollars. Goldman Sachs' forecasts for major suppliers also point to an increase of 100%–160% in average HBM prices in the same year.
Prices may vary greatly across customers and suppliers. TrendForce expects HBM4 prices in 2027 to range from close to 3 dollars per Gb at the low end to over 5 dollars at the high end. Benefiting from its price premium, HBM4 is expected to account for nearly 60% of industry revenue that year.
Demand for Google's TPUs is expected to continue supporting bit demand for HBM3E in 2027, spreading demand across multiple product generations rather than concentrating it solely on HBM4 and HBM4E.
Why is capacity expansion unlikely to ease tight supply quickly?
Although manufacturers plan to increase capital expenditure aggressively, TrendForce believes cleanroom constraints and equipment delivery lead times will make it difficult to increase DRAM capacity substantially before 2028.
It expects each of the two Korean suppliers to add capacity of 80 thousand–100 thousand wafers per month in 2027, but Samsung's incremental capacity is expected to be allocated mainly to HBM. Growth in conventional DRAM bits will therefore rely mainly on process upgrades.
Equipment supply may begin to improve in the second half of 2027, and new plants could provide more substantial supply from 2028 onward. Manufacturers may also adjust expansion plans according to the demand outlook.
What are the implications of the competitive landscape and Goldman Sachs' ratings?
TrendForce believes Chinese HBM suppliers will exert limited competitive pressure in the medium term because they still lag leading manufacturers significantly in technology and yield. It expects Chinese suppliers' share of the HBM market to be below 2% in 2027.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its buy ratings on Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. The bank's main identified risks include a significant deterioration in memory supply and demand and the effect of a decline in AI-related capital expenditure on HBM demand. Progress in Samsung's HBM business will also affect SK hynix's HBM revenue and profit.
