Morgan Stanley: Hanmi Semiconductor’s third-quarter results miss market expectations; sustained growth depends on new orders

How far did third-quarter results deviate from expectations?

Hanmi Semiconductor preliminarily reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of 181 billion South Korean won and operating profit of 91 billion South Korean won, 14% and 8% below market consensus, respectively, but 4% and 6% above Morgan Stanley’s estimates.
Revenue and operating profit fell 28% and 30% quarter on quarter, respectively, but rose 9% and 34% year on year; the operating margin was 50.2%, above the market consensus of 46.9%.
Bonding equipment sales fell 40% quarter on quarter to 101 billion South Korean won, with their share of total revenue declining from 67% in the second quarter to 56%.

Morgan Stanley is focused on the gap between HBM output growth and investment in new thermocompression bonding equipment: if memory makers meet more incremental demand through productivity gains and installed capacity, purchases of new equipment may remain selective.
The bank cites SK hynix as an example: the company guided for approximately 25% quarter-on-quarter growth in DRAM bit output in the fourth quarter of 2026, above the third quarter’s 10%; this growth comes alongside migration to the 1c nm process and a capacity ramp-up.
Therefore, Morgan Stanley remains cautious on back-end packaging capital expenditure, even if spending on wafer fab equipment increases overall.

Morgan Stanley believes deferred sales may support fourth-quarter results, but sustained earnings growth requires new bonding equipment orders; the bank is waiting for more customers to restart related investment to match strong demand for other products.
Customer capacity expansion and supplier competition both affect orders: a substantial increase in HBM capacity by global DRAM makers is an upside factor; slower-than-expected expansion by SK hynix or Micron, intensifying competition and loss of customer share pose downside risks.
The bank rates the company Underweight, with a price target of 200 thousand South Korean won, based on a price-to-earnings multiple of 50 times expected average earnings per share for 2027 to 2028.