Ping An’s third-quarter operating profit rises, but new business value falls 54%

Operating profit is growing, so why are concerns lingering?

In the third quarter of 2026, Ping An Group’s operating profit was 41.7 billion yuan, up 8% year over year; it also grew 8% in the first three quarters. Goldman Sachs believes that, given the low base in the fourth quarter of 2025, full-year operating profit is tracking ahead of its own and market consensus expectations.
Life insurance was the main support: third-quarter life insurance operating profit rose 12% year over year, considerably faster than the 1% increase in the first half. Goldman Sachs believes this may reflect improved operating variance and a lower effective tax rate, and also indicates an improvement in the profitability of existing policies.
Meanwhile, life insurance new business value fell 54% year over year in the third quarter to 6.1 billion yuan, 32% below Goldman Sachs’ forecast; it fell 13% in the first three quarters, while the Visible Alpha market consensus had previously forecast positive growth for the full year. The weakness in new business has focused investor attention on future growth.

Third-quarter life insurance first-year premiums fell 52% year over year to 27 billion yuan. Goldman Sachs noted that the industry was affected by two factors: promotions ahead of product repricing in the third quarter of 2025 raised the comparison base, and bancassurance sales were also disrupted in 2026.
The new business margin fell from 26.1% in the second quarter to 22.7% in the third quarter. With sales volumes declining and the margin falling quarter over quarter, Goldman Sachs sees further downside risk in the fourth quarter.
Management continues to believe that new business value has double-digit growth potential over the medium term. Goldman Sachs expects investors to focus on demand resilience, with sales during the 2027 early-year campaign as the first important indicator to watch.

Third-quarter group net profit fell 94% year over year to 4.1 billion yuan, with both life and property and casualty insurance recording net losses; group net profit for the first three quarters fell 27% to 96.6 billion yuan, in line with Goldman Sachs’ earlier forecast.
Third-quarter shareholders’ equity rose 2% quarter over quarter to 1.044 trillion yuan, tracking above Goldman Sachs’ previous full-year forecast of 1.039 trillion yuan. Equity investments measured at fair value through other comprehensive income contributed gains of 44 billion yuan, offsetting the negative impact of falling bond yields.
Asset management net profit was 10.3 billion yuan in the third quarter, exceeding the 9.2 billion yuan recorded in the first half. Goldman Sachs said this may have included one-off gains, but believes the performance echoed management’s guidance that the asset provisioning cycle was largely over.

Goldman Sachs raised its 2026–2028 operating profit forecasts by 1%–3%: higher life insurance operating profit broadly offsets cuts to its profit forecasts for property and casualty insurance and banking. The bank lowered its 2026 net profit forecast by 4% due to weakness in equity markets since the start of the fourth quarter.
Because of lower forecasts for new policy sales, Goldman Sachs cut its 2026–2028 new business value forecasts by 5%–6%. Its 2026 forecast is 34.327 billion yuan, down 7% year over year.
Goldman Sachs maintained its buy ratings on Ping An’s A and H shares and adjusted its 12-month target prices from the previous forecasts corresponding to 71 Hong Kong dollars and 69 Hong Kong dollars, respectively, to 70 yuan for the A shares and 68 Hong Kong dollars for the H shares; the previous A-share target was 71 yuan.