How many orders have Chinese shipyards won?

  • Measured in compensated gross tonnage, which reflects shipbuilding workload, Chinese shipyards secured about 76% of global new orders in the first three quarters of 2026, while South Korea accounted for about 15%. Measured in deadweight tonnage, China’s share was 81.8%; the two measures emphasize different aspects.
  • Data from China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology show that shipbuilding completions in China rose 50.7% year on year in the first three quarters, to 58.05 million deadweight tons; new orders rose 163.2% to 175.29 million deadweight tons. Chinese shipyards won orders for 144 very large crude carriers, accounting for 85.5% of the global total.
  • Orders are not limited to tankers: China also secured orders for 94 container ships with capacity of at least ten thousand TEU during the same period, accounting for 82.7% of the global total.

Why are more tankers still needed as oil exports recover?

  • In the week ending 18 October, Middle Eastern oil exports averaged more than 24 million barrels a day, above the prewar level of 23.3 million barrels. But the share of Gulf cargo avoiding the Strait of Hormuz rose from 17% before the war to about 40%; as of 26 October, the seven-day average of oil flows through the strait had fallen again to about half its prewar level.
  • Some crude is first carried by tanker within the Gulf, then continues its journey after a ship-to-ship transfer; diversion routes also tend to be longer. A journey previously completed by one vessel may require two vessels and several days for transfer, so even if export volumes recover, the shipping capacity occupied per barrel of oil may still increase.
  • Nomura believes repeated disruptions are affecting shipowners’ long-term fleet planning. About 20% of very large crude carriers are more than 20 years old, and replacement demand also supports orders.

With ample orders, why has delivery become the key?

  • BIMCO measures capacity using each shipyard’s highest annual output in 2021–2025 and estimates that Chinese shipyards’ order books are equivalent to about 4.2 years of capacity, compared with 1.9 years for South Korea and 1.7 years for Japan.
  • Chinese shipyards plan to deliver 44 million compensated gross tons in 2028, nearly twice the 22.7 million compensated gross tons actually delivered in 2025. Even measured against this higher output, China’s order book is still equivalent to about 2.1 years of capacity.
  • Nomura believes dock expansion requires a matching increase in skilled workers and equipment while maintaining construction quality; delivery reliability will affect subsequent orders and the timing of export receipts.

How do orders become exports, and what policy constraints apply?

  • China’s ship exports totaled 52.2 billion US dollars in the first three quarters of 2026, up 29.9% year on year, exceeding the 21.3% growth in China’s total exports. Ships accounted for only 1.55% of total exports, so their direct contribution to overall growth remains limited for now.
  • The number of ships exported rose only 1.6% over the same period; growth in export value mainly reflected a shift toward larger, higher-value vessels. Ships take years to build, and current export revenue mainly reflects contracts from earlier years. Orders placed in 2025–2026 will gradually translate into exports as vessels are delivered.
  • The US–China trade truce has been extended to January 2027, and the Office of the US Trade Representative has proposed extending the suspension of maritime Section 301 port fees to 9 January. Nomura notes that the extension is short and policy risks will persist into early 2027.