How fast are outbound innovative drug deals growing?

  • According to PharmaCube, the total value of China's outbound innovative drug licensing deals in the first half of 2026 was 99.7 billion US dollars, approximately 2 times the full-year total for 2024 and 73% of the full-year total for 2025. Upfront payments in the same period were 5 billion US dollars, equivalent to 71% of the full-year total for 2025; both figures reached record highs for the same period.
  • Total deal value and upfront payments are different measures: the former reached 99.7 billion US dollars, which does not mean companies have received an equivalent amount of funding. A relevant official at the National Development and Reform Commission said the value of outbound technology licensing for innovative drugs reached 130 billion US dollars in the first three quarters, close to the total for all of last year.

What is driving domestic sales and overseas commercialization?

  • Guosen Securities believes that most domestic innovative drug companies are entering a phase of increased sales of major products under medical insurance coverage, driving rapid revenue growth. Increased sales under medical insurance coverage and overseas licensing are two distinct growth paths, linked to domestic sales and overseas partnerships, respectively.
  • The brokerage also believes that overseas clinical development of Chinese innovative drugs has made progress, that Innovative Overseas Expansion 2.0 will enter a harvest period, and that products are poised to enter global commercialization in large numbers. Clinical progress and commercialization are sequential stages; the current assessment focuses on the transition from development to commercialization.

What do policy targets and company strategies indicate?

  • Nanjing Securities noted that the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan for Pharmaceutical Industry Development calls for average annual growth of at least 20% in the scale of the innovative drug industry by 2030, and supports domestic companies' participation in the global division of labor in pharmaceutical innovation through joint research and development and joint commercialization.
  • Among the companies concerned, Boji Medical signed nearly 430 million yuan in new orders in the first quarter of 2026, up 74.36% year on year. Clinical trial orders rose 65% and preclinical orders rose 260%. The company is developing capabilities in areas including CGT and GLP-1 weight loss, and has established partnerships with more than 30 overseas clinical centers.
  • HyBio Pharmaceutical continues to advance research and development of innovative peptide drugs and small nucleic acid drugs, while expanding its peptide drug research, development and manufacturing services and strengthening its capabilities across active pharmaceutical ingredients, formulations and innovative drugs.