Tesla Robotaxi mileage grows rapidly; Deutsche Bank sees potential SpaceX merger talks as a possible key driver of the stock
Unsupervised Robotaxi mileage has grown nearly 9-fold in three months, while Optimus still faces a lengthy ramp-up to mass production. Deutsche Bank believes the shareholder voting threshold and deal premium for a potential SpaceX merger could affect Tesla’s share price.
Original source：Deutsche BankFirst published on Unhidea：Original source date：
Key takeaway
Deutsche Bank is positive on Tesla’s Robotaxi operating progress, but believes the main driver of the stock could shift to the terms of a potential SpaceX merger; Optimus remains a long way from production at scale and deliveries to external customers.
Why could a SpaceX merger affect Tesla’s share price?
Musk said the two companies have formed special committees of independent directors at shareholders’ request to evaluate a merger. He supports a merger but is not participating in the discussions because of conflicts of interest. The two sides have yet to agree on terms.
On Tesla’s side, 50% of all outstanding shares must vote in favor, rather than just half of the shares voted. Deutsche Bank believes that, assuming an all-stock deal, a substantial premium may be needed to secure shareholder approval and reduce the risk of legal challenges.
On that basis, Deutsche Bank judges that a potential deal premium could support Tesla’s share price. The bank sees the main obstacle as how to handle Tesla’s large and profitable China business, given that SpaceX is an important supplier to the US government.
Where is Robotaxi making progress?
As of 18 October 2026, Tesla Robotaxis had traveled 3.1 million miles without supervision; Deutsche Bank estimates that cumulative mileage has grown nearly 9-fold over the past three months.
Cybercab began paid service in Austin on 3 September, and the local fleet has grown approximately 10-fold since launch. Operating hours have been extended to nearly midnight, and management aims to achieve around-the-clock operations before year-end and cover highways, higher speeds and more weather conditions.
The company expects to launch service in Dallas in November and expand to more cities before year-end. A supervised version of FSD v15 is scheduled for broad release to owners this year, followed by a transition to unsupervised operation within limited geographic areas in 2027.
Tesla plans to make Cybercabs available to consumers in small quantities later this year, while prioritizing its own fleet; owners are expected to be able to join the managed network in 2027 using the unsupervised version of v15.
How far is Optimus from deliveries at scale?
The first robots meeting production-quality standards are coming off the line in Fremont, and most of the equipment needed for a production line with nominal annual capacity of 1 million units is in place. Management expects it to take at least a year to reach a production rate of 20 thousand units per week, while Deutsche Bank thinks it could take longer.
The ramp-up challenges span the supply chain, manufacturing and design; hands, reliability, service life and AI capabilities are still being developed in parallel. Tesla plans to have approximately 10 thousand to 20 thousand early robots accumulate real-world data by practicing different tasks.
The company plans to integrate the AI 5 chip in April 2027 and is targeting its first deliveries to external customers around the end of 2027, initially for industrial applications.
What changes did Deutsche Bank make to its operating forecasts?
Deutsche Bank said most model adjustments were small, apart from energy storage pricing: AI data-center demand is improving the pricing trend for energy storage. The bank raised its 2026 total revenue forecast from approximately 106.1 billion dollars to approximately 107.2 billion dollars.
Deutsche Bank maintained its buy rating and 420-dollar price target; the closing price listed in the report for 23 October 2026 was 372.22 dollars.
