Morgan Stanley: Greater China materials demand tracker: Air conditioner production plans rise as demand for steel and building materials diverges

What signals are home appliance and battery production plans sending?

Industry Online data show that planned air conditioner output for November 2026 was 12.23 million units, up 15.6% year over year. Planned refrigerator and washing machine output was 8.15 million and 8.12 million units, respectively, down 1.3% and 5.6% year over year. Growth in home appliance production plans was concentrated in air conditioners.
Planned battery output in October was 320.4 gigawatt-hours, up 66% year over year and 6% month over month. Planned lithium product output was 145.3 thousand tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent, up 23% year over year and unchanged month over month.

China Iron and Steel Association data show that average daily crude steel output at key steelmakers in mid-October was 1.894 million tonnes, down 2.3% from early October and 6.0% year over year. Tracked weekly apparent consumption of long products and flat products over the same period was 2.9 million tonnes and 5.5 million tonnes, respectively, down 12% and 6.1% year over year but up 3% and 1% week over week.
Steel plate output varied significantly by end use in September: container plate and shipbuilding plate rose 63.7% and 25.1% year over year, respectively, while plate for machinery and wind power fell 22.8% and 18.4%, respectively.

Cement prices in East China were generally stable: demand was weak in Nanjing and recovered slightly in Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou, while the extent to which earlier price increases were implemented varied across locations.
Cement prices in the Pearl River Delta were trending upward, but high downstream costs and increased inflows of cement from Hunan and Fujian pushed further price increases back to early November.
Property sales remained under pressure: tracked weekly new-home sales by floor area were 1.569 million square metres, up 11% week over week but down 20.8% year over year. Existing-home sales were 7700 units, down 30% week over week and 22.2% year over year.

Indonesia approved revised mining production quotas for 2026: approximately 700 million tonnes of coal and 290 million tonnes of nickel ore, with the aim of supporting uninterrupted mining operations.