Goldman Sachs: Weekly new-home transactions in China rebound as land premiums fall to a multi-year low in October

New-home transactions rebound: How much have they improved?

Across approximately 75 cities tracked by Goldman Sachs, new-home transaction floor area rose 12% week on week in week 44 but remained down 11% year on year; new-home search activity fell 1.5% week on week.
On a monthly basis, median new-home transaction floor area rose 19% month on month in October but fell 14% year on year. Average transaction floor area year to date fell 9% year on year and was 18% and 33% below the levels in 2024 and 2023, respectively.
Based on sales data from approximately 75 cities, Goldman Sachs estimates that contracted sales by the top property developers fell 9% year on year in October, while PTI estimates a decline of 17%.

In week 44, existing-home transaction floor area across approximately 20 cities fell 7% week on week but still rose 7% year on year. The year-to-date figure rose 2% year on year and was 10% and 13% higher than in the same periods of 2024 and 2023, respectively.
In Shanghai, approximately 24.7 thousand existing-home transactions were registered online in October, up 33% year on year and 5% month on month, a six-year high for the period. Since March, monthly transactions in Shanghai have exceeded 23 thousand homes for eight consecutive months.
Short-term signals are mixed: existing-home viewings in monitored cities rebounded 4% week on week, but subscription sales, which lead online contract registrations by one to two weeks, fell 3%. Agents' expectations of rising home prices improved slightly, while sellers' expectations continued to decline.

China Index Academy data show that both residential land transaction area and transaction value across 300 cities rose approximately 90% year on year in October. Goldman Sachs believes this may reflect a more than doubling of land supply year on year in September and a low base.
Meanwhile, the average land auction premium fell to 1.5% in October, its lowest monthly level in recent years; land supply fell 46% year on year that month. Higher transaction volume coincided with lower land acquisition premiums.
Outstanding inventory in approximately 20 cities fell 0.4% week on week in week 44 and was down 8.7% from the end of 2025. The inventory absorption period was 26.4 months, below the September average of 27.2 months.

Over the past week, another 5 second-tier cities issued implementation rules for the “8·28” reforms, bringing the total to 17 cities. Nanjing introduced a mechanism allowing completed homes to be sold while still mortgaged; Jinan provided more demand-side support for purchases of completed homes, including allowing one home to be deducted when determining eligibility for housing provident fund loans.
Goldman Sachs' completion tracker, based on a float glass supply-and-demand model, indicates that completed floor area may have fallen by a high-twenties percentage year on year in October; the National Bureau of Statistics reported a 36% year-on-year decline in September.
Based on land sales trends in 300 cities and the nationwide cement shipment rate, Goldman Sachs expects new construction starts by floor area to have also fallen by a high-twenties percentage year on year in October; the National Bureau of Statistics reported a decline of 26% in September.