Qiaoyin bets on urban-service AI and computing-capacity leasing as express delivery price increases begin to reach profits
Qiaoyin’s urban-service operations provide an entry point for robot data, but computing-capacity leasing requires capital outlay before revenue arrives. Express delivery volumes, prices and profits are improving together, while China Securities places greater weight on leading companies’ cash generation and their networks’ ability to withstand pressure.
The value of Qiaoyin’s new businesses depends on deployment in real-world settings and returns on capital. The improvement in express delivery profitability is already supported by volume and price data, but companies’ differing financing and reinvestment capacities determine how much they benefit.
How do Qiaoyin’s urban-service operations connect to its robotics business?
Qiaoyin’s entry points are municipal roads, waste collection and transport, and commercial properties covered by long-term service contracts. Equipment in operation can serve as collection points for real-world interaction data, which can then be linked to training and deployment, providing an entry point for turning data into assets.
The company is the sole strategic partner from the urban-services industry at the National and Local Co-built Humanoid Robot Innovation Center. The jointly developed “Qiaoyin Weilong” can move, connect and return waste bins to their designated positions. Under the plan, scenario validation and product version lock-in for the Liwan project in Guangzhou will be completed by the end of 2026, followed by deployment in the Maoming project in 2027. Commercial progress still follows a defined timetable.
How much profit can computing-capacity leasing contribute, and how much capital must be invested first?
In September 2026, the company purchased computing servers and supporting equipment in four batches, with total investment of approximately 265 million yuan, about nine-tenths of it from its own funds. The equipment is currently being delivered and accepted in batches. Once it is in place, the company plans to sign a 5-year service arrangement, with a contract signed each year, for 66.5603 million yuan per year including tax and payment in arrears monthly. Capital outlay precedes cash collection.
According to the company’s estimates, the project will add approximately 60 million yuan in annual revenue at a net margin of around 11%, equivalent to annual net profit of approximately 6.6 million yuan. The first order provides a new source of profit, but relative to the investment involved, returns depend on continued contract performance and service revenue.
Huaxi Securities forecasts Qiaoyin’s net profit attributable to shareholders at 186 million, 233 million and 341 million yuan for 2026 through 2028, respectively, corresponding to PE multiples of approximately 22, 18 and 12. It initiated coverage with a “buy” rating. Growth is expected to accelerate mainly in the latter two years: attributable net profit fell 36.4% in 2025 and is forecast to grow only about 1.2% in 2026. The report lists collections from local governments, credit impairment and expansion of new businesses as the main constraints.
Why are express delivery price increases considered more sustainable?
The report puts express delivery volume from 1 through September at 151.3 billion parcels, up 4.3% year on year. Revenue rose 7.2%, and the average price was approximately 7.69 yuan per parcel, up around 2.8% year on year. The simultaneous rise in volume and price underpins China Securities’ view that this round of price increases is supported by real demand and is more sustainable than the “self-discipline-driven price increases” of 2021.
Profits have shown a corresponding improvement: STO Express reported that third-quarter net profit doubled year on year to an 8-year high, while YTO Express reported net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.63 billion yuan for the first three quarters, up 60.94% year on year. The return to positive growth in the industry’s average price and the companies’ strong profit growth corroborate each other.
At a postal and express delivery industry meeting held on October 22–23, participants were directed to stabilize last-mile delivery fees, address cross-region parcel collection, and prohibit headquarters from imposing escalating charges through the service network and passing on costs. China Securities believes these measures, together with the Singles’ Day peak season, support fourth-quarter prices and the health of the outlet network; weaker-than-expected e-commerce express delivery demand would constrain that assessment.
Both benefit from industry improvement, but how do leading and trailing companies differ?
China Securities believes ZTO Express and YTO Express are entering a period of profit realization after their peak capacity investment, with profit per parcel and potential financing capacity above the market average. This supports continued operations at headquarters and provides a buffer when franchise networks come under pressure. Last-mile reforms and digitalization provide further drivers.
STO Express and J&T Express depend more on addressing capacity shortfalls for their earnings upside. Both currently have insufficient profit per parcel and potential financing capacity. The report considers their shareholders’ backgrounds and financial strength important for supporting investment through measures such as dedicated funds. Overcoming constraints on capacity reinvestment is a condition for translating their growth into greater earnings upside.
