Four year-end industry themes: rising chemical prices, renewed food and beverage holdings, and tightening oil tanker capacity

Why are three chemical products rising in price at the same time?

Viscose filament supply is contracting as exports grow. Xinxiang Chemical Fiber has permanently withdrawn 31.2 thousand tonnes of capacity, equivalent to 10.95% of effective domestic capacity; the industry's average operating rate reached 90.49% in the first 9 months of this year, making it difficult for idle capacity to fill the gap in the short term. Export volume rose 23.1% year on year over the same period, and on 30 October four major producers collectively raised export quotations by 150 dollars per tonne.
Taurine price increases are supported by maintenance shutdowns and low inventories. As of 30 October, the price was 30.5 yuan per kilogram, up 90.63% for the year; Yongan Pharmaceutical has suspended all production lines for maintenance since mid-October, while food and beverages and pet food together account for about 75% of total demand.
Glufosinate has moved from loss to profit. As of 30 October, the price was 70 thousand yuan per tonne, up 59.45% from the start of the year; factory inventories stood at 910 tonnes, down 77.8% year on year and near a three-year low. Weekly gross profit estimated by BAIINFO rose to 12915.2 yuan per tonne; the cancellation of export tax rebates and temporary production suspensions for key intermediates are also affecting supply.

In the third quarter of 2026, the share of actively managed equity-oriented funds' major holdings in food and beverages rose 0.70 percentage points quarter on quarter to 2.35%, ending the previous quarter's decline; the underweight relative to the industry allocation benchmark narrowed from 1.08 to 0.90 percentage points, though the sector remained underweight.
Baijiu was the main focus of position rebuilding, with its share of major holdings rising 0.46 percentage points quarter on quarter to 1.54%; excluding Kweichow Moutai, baijiu remained underweight by 0.06 percentage points. The shares of major holdings in dairy and condiments and fermented products also recovered by 0.14 and 0.05 percentage points respectively.
Among individual stocks, the number of funds holding Kweichow Moutai as a major holding increased by 57 quarter on quarter to 352; allocations to Yili, Angel Yeast and Yanjing Brewery also increased.

Among brands, premium and differentiated products are leading, but revenue growth has generally slowed across the industry. In the third quarter, revenue at Biem.L.Fdlkk and Sanfo Outdoor rose 34.4% and 16.8% respectively, while both revenue and profit weakened at some mass-market brands; clothing retail sales in September grew 1.2% year on year, returning to positive growth.
Contract manufacturers' profitability improved somewhat, but revenue has yet to return to growth across the board. Huali Group's third-quarter revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders fell 8.3% and 18.9% year on year respectively, with narrower declines than in the second quarter and a higher gross margin both year on year and quarter on quarter; Kairun's net profit excluding non-recurring items grew 18.8%, while revenue edged down because of last year's high base.
Guosen Securities expects faster export growth, the implementation of tariffs and customer restocking to improve fourth-quarter order visibility and support a recovery in manufacturers' revenue and profitability. In September, China's apparel exports grew 17.8% year on year, while textile yarn exports rose 25.2%.

Since the conflict escalated in July 2026, 9.864 million deadweight tonnes of oil tanker capacity have been added globally, while 10.36 million deadweight tonnes of capacity have been attacked over the same period; this includes 4.925 million deadweight tonnes of new VLCC capacity and 7.364 million deadweight tonnes of VLCC capacity attacked. Attacked vessels take about two months on average before they can load again, and new ships cannot readily add capacity in the short term.
Tight capacity has pushed up freight rates: on 29 October, VLCC freight from the Middle East to China reached 1.346 million dollars per day, up 517% from before the outbreak of war on 27 February.
Guolian Minsheng believes that earlier delivery slots have increased the value of shipyard capacity. In October, Hengli Heavy Industry's newly signed VLCC orders averaged nearly 140 million dollars per ship, above the market price of approximately 128 million to 130 million dollars; measured in deadweight tonnes, its VLCC order book accounts for 27% of the global total.