Goldman Sachs: US supply chain congestion index rises 6% as East Coast port backlogs increase

How severe is overall congestion after the index rose?

In the week ending 2 November, Goldman Sachs’ weekly congestion index rose 6% from the previous week, but the congestion level on its 1-to-10 scale remained at 2. The bank believes overall fluidity remains close to pre-pandemic levels and congestion is far below its peak from late 2021 to early 2022.
The weekly level primarily tracks high-frequency transportation data; a composite measure that includes monthly indicators was also at level 2 in September and close to level 1. If supply chain pressures continue to ease broadly, Goldman Sachs believes the index could remain more consistently at level 1 in 2026.

In the latest week, the number of container ships waiting for berths along the US East and Gulf Coasts rose to 7 from 1 the previous week; the West Coast remained at 1. The East and Gulf Coast figures are estimates based on satellite observations.
Container shipping rates from China to the North American West Coast rose to about 8370 dollars per 40-foot container, up about 3% from approximately 8120 dollars the previous week and up 313% year over year.

Loaded inbound container volumes at the three major ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach and Oakland rose 23% year over year in September; in the latest week, intermodal volumes at the two major West Coast Class I railroads rose an average of 16% year over year, slowing from 18% the previous week.
Rail service indicators were mixed: in the latest week, intermodal train speeds at BNSF and Union Pacific fell 8% and 6.4% year over year, respectively, with both declines widening from the previous week; but BNSF railcar dwell time fell from 22.9 hours to 22.5 hours, while Union Pacific remained at 19.9 hours.

Average container dwell time in San Pedro Bay rose to 3.2 days in September from 3.0 days in August; rail container dwell time rose from 6.8 days to 7.2 days, but remained far below its peak of about 16 days in 2022.
The September Logistics Managers’ Index showed that transportation and warehousing capacity both contracted faster than in August, while warehouse utilization expanded faster. The data indicate that, while the overall network is nearly as fluid as before the pandemic, some transportation capacity and warehousing operations remain under pressure.
Goldman Sachs is watching how tariffs and geopolitical conflicts affect freight demand, the timing of goods flows and the normalization of global trade; these factors will affect whether congestion can continue to ease.