Morgan Stanley: Walmart membership survey shows cross-selling potential, with a sizable group already holding both memberships

How much overlap was there between the two memberships in the survey?

Morgan Stanley’s October survey found that approximately 26% of respondent households held Walmart+ memberships, approximately 31% held standard or Plus Sam’s Club memberships, and approximately 12% held both.
Among members, approximately 45% of Walmart+ members also held Sam’s Club memberships; conversely, approximately 38% of standard and Plus Sam’s Club members also held Walmart+. The two membership groups overlap significantly, but not completely.

Approximately 14% of respondents held only Walmart+, while another approximately 19% held only standard or Plus Sam’s Club memberships. Morgan Stanley sees these single-membership groups as natural targets for selling the other membership.
Another approximately 55% of respondents held neither membership, making them a potential audience for attracting new members. The bank believes Walmart’s membership bundling initiatives could promote cross-selling and increase total spending per member over time.

Approximately 12% of respondents already held both memberships, meaning this group already had dual-membership coverage. Morgan Stanley said management had previously described the overlap between the two membership groups as very low, differing from the significant overlap shown in the survey.
This was the first time the bank had included a question on membership overlap in its regular survey. Subsequent surveys will be used to refine responses, consider possible adjustments, and assess respondents’ awareness of bundled offerings.

Morgan Stanley assigns Walmart an Overweight rating and a price target of 125 dollars; the closing price listed in the report for 30 October 2026 was 123.51 dollars.
The price target corresponds to approximately 36.8 times forecast earnings per share for fiscal 2029, above Walmart’s average price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 21 times over the past 10 years. The bank believes the company’s transformation into an e-commerce and supply-chain innovator supports a higher valuation; a renewed widening of e-commerce losses or a slowdown in US e-commerce growth are downside risks it identifies.