Why is 2026 a key window?

  • Wanlian Securities believes humanoid robots are moving from technological breakthroughs toward commercialization at scale, and that 2026 is a key window for mass-production validation and application deployment. Tesla, Unitree Robotics, AgiBot and UBTECH are advancing their mass-production schedules.
  • On the demand side, population aging and rising labor costs are long-term drivers; policy, capital and iterations in large AI models are also driving industry development. Wanlian Securities expects applications to gradually expand from the enterprise segment to the consumer segment.

How will price cuts affect the industry chain?

  • Price is an important prerequisite for commercialization at scale. Wanlian Securities says domestic companies have brought the prices of complete robots down from the million-yuan range to the hundred-thousand-yuan range through in-house technology development and supply-chain integration.
  • The firm is focused on core component manufacturers that have entered, or may be able to enter, the supply chains of Tesla and Unitree Robotics, particularly in high-value, high-barrier segments such as precision reducers, actuators and sensors. The ability to achieve high-quality mass production at lower cost is an important condition for these manufacturers to benefit.

Where do valuations and companies' business progress stand?

  • Wanlian Securities says the humanoid-robot index's valuation is around 7% on its five-year historical percentile scale, while its percentile over the past year has risen to around 11%; in the firm's view, sector valuations have recovered somewhat in the short term but remain in the bottom region of their historical range over the long term.
  • Wanxiang Qianchao has designated robotics as its third-largest strategic business segment and is advancing the R&D and industrialization of components such as joint modules and specialized bearings. It currently mainly serves leading customers in the industry, and a small number of samples have been delivered.
  • Boton Technology, meanwhile, has a dedicated team carrying out secondary development of robots for coordination with conveyor systems; the quadruped and biped robots it has further developed have secured orders from BHP.