Weekly output at sampled thermal coal mines rebounds 2%; inventories also rise but remain below last year’s level
At the 100 sampled mines tracked by Citi, output and inventories both increased 2% week on week over October 15–21. Supply recovered from the previous week, but output was still down 4.6% year on year when aligned by the lunar calendar. By region, Shaanxi increased output, while Shanxi remained below last year’s level.
Original source：Citi ResearchFirst published on Unhidea：Original source date：
Key takeaway
The sampled mines recorded both a weekly increase in output and an inventory build, but output and inventories remained below last year’s levels on a lunar-calendar basis. The short-term rebound thus coincided with weaker year-on-year levels.
How strong was the weekly output rebound compared with the same period last year?
Citi cited Sxcoal data showing that, over October 2026 15–21, weekly output at 100 sampled thermal coal mines was 12.274 million tonnes, up 2% week on week. The sample covers Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia and tracks production and inventories at the mines.
The year-on-year comparison yields two results: weekly output was flat against the same period on the Gregorian calendar, but fell 4.6% when aligned by the lunar calendar. The improvement this week was therefore mainly an increase in output from the previous week; on a lunar-calendar basis, it remained below the same period last year.
The overall capacity utilisation rate at the sampled mines was 90.9% over the same period, up 1.8 percentage points week on week, consistent with the direction of the output rebound. It rose only 0.1 percentage points year on year on a Gregorian-calendar basis and fell 1.9 percentage points on a lunar-calendar basis.
Was the output increase accompanied by a drawdown in mine inventories?
Mine inventories also increased during the week in which output rose. As of 21 October, coal inventories at the sampled mines stood at 3.17 million tonnes, up 2% week on week, the same rate as the increase in weekly output. There was no accompanying decline in mine inventories.
The inventory build this week coexisted with inventories remaining low year on year: total inventories fell 3% on a Gregorian-calendar basis and 5% on a lunar-calendar basis. The weekly change points to an increase in inventories, while the annual comparison shows that levels remained below last year’s; the two time windows need to be understood separately.
Which regions are increasing output, and where is performance still weighing on the year-on-year comparison?
Weekly output at sampled mines in Shaanxi was 3.746 million tonnes, up 4% week on week and 5% year on year on both Gregorian and lunar calendar bases. In Shanxi, output was 2.791 million tonnes, up 3% week on week but down 6% under both year-on-year measures. Both regions increased output from the previous week, while the difference remained clear: Shaanxi was above last year’s level and Shanxi below it.
Weekly output at sampled mines in Inner Mongolia was 5.737 million tonnes, unchanged week on week and under both year-on-year measures. This week’s week-on-week increase in total output therefore came from Shanxi and Shaanxi, rather than simultaneous expansion across all three regions.
On inventories, Shaanxi recorded a week-on-week increase of 5%, higher than Shanxi’s 2% and Inner Mongolia’s 1%. On a Gregorian-calendar year-on-year basis, inventories fell 12% in Shanxi and rose 1% in both Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia. The lower total inventory level year on year was mainly evident in Shanxi.
