How much did China's exports to Europe accelerate?

  • In September 2026, China's paperboard exports to Europe rose 47% year on year, significantly faster than the 2% recorded in August, marking the 11th consecutive month of year-on-year growth. Over the same period, China's global paperboard exports rose 19% year on year.
  • Annualizing exports in the year through September, exports to Europe were approximately 1.222 million tonnes, about 259 thousand tonnes more than in 2025, equivalent to roughly 14% of Goldman Sachs' forecast for European paperboard consumption in 2026. This compares an export flow with forecast consumption.

Where are the additional exports going?

  • Russia is a major destination: on an annualized year-to-date basis, China's paperboard exports to Russia were approximately 490 thousand tonnes, accounting for about 40% of total exports to Europe as measured by Goldman Sachs. Excluding Russia, the annualized increase in exports to Europe falls to approximately 150 thousand tonnes.
  • Of the increase excluding Russia, Poland, Spain and the United Kingdom accounted for approximately 31 thousand, 22 thousand and 21 thousand tonnes, respectively, together representing about half.
  • European listed paperboard companies and market participants continue to report limited competition from Chinese imports in their core markets. Goldman Sachs believes one possible explanation is that a substantial portion of exports still goes to markets outside these large companies' core markets.
  • Statistical classifications also affect the picture of trade flows: Goldman Sachs groups Turkey with the Middle East, and its annualized imports of Chinese paperboard are approximately 530 thousand tonnes. The destinations of goods transshipped through Turkey may alter the data on direct China-Europe trade.

Why are margins still under pressure as European producers raise prices?

  • Market feedback indicates that European paperboard remains in oversupply. Although producers have recently announced price increases, Goldman Sachs believes most are intended to pass on costs and that current supply and demand conditions will hinder their full implementation.
  • Goldman Sachs expects only a modest rise in prices in the near term and continued dilution of overall margins. Unless Europe significantly accelerates capacity closures, paperboard prices will remain under downward pressure over the next few quarters as excess capacity grows.

Which companies' earnings are more affected?

  • Among the European pulp and paper companies covered by Goldman Sachs, the bank sees Stora Enso as facing the greatest risk. Its consumer packaging division contributed 31% of group adjusted EBITDA in 2025; Goldman Sachs' forecasts for the division's EBITDA in both 2027 and 2028 are about 13% below the Visible Alpha market consensus.
  • Smurfit Westrock also has exposure to the European paperboard market, but Goldman Sachs considers it much smaller: 87% of the company's paperboard capacity is in the United States, where supply and demand are more balanced, while the more favorable pricing environment in the US containerboard market also provides a hedge.
  • Goldman Sachs rates Stora Enso sell, with a 12-month price target of 9 euros. If the EU imposes anti-dumping measures on Chinese paper products, or local pulp prices recover faster than expected, the bank's earnings assessment for the company could face upside.