J.P. Morgan: Chemicals and packaging models show uneven earnings recovery, with wide cash-flow differences among low-valuation companies

Which chemical companies show the greatest improvement in earnings forecasts?

JPMorgan expects Dow’s EBITDA to rise from 3.077 billion dollars in 2025 to 5.887 billion dollars in 2026, and Lyondell’s to rise from 2.543 billion dollars to 5.375 billion dollars. The companies’ 2025 earnings per share were a loss of 0.93 dollars and a profit of 1.87 dollars, respectively; their 2026 forecasts are profits of 2.60 dollars and 8.75 dollars, respectively.
The improvement in the models is uneven: Olin’s loss per share is expected to widen from 0.15 dollars in 2025 to 0.90 dollars in 2026; Tronox is expected to remain loss-making over the same period, with its loss per share narrowing from 1.51 dollars to 1.35 dollars.
The rebound is not expected to continue every year. JPMorgan expects Methanex’s EBITDA to rise from 808 million dollars in 2025 to 1.924 billion dollars in 2026, before falling to 1.76 billion dollars in 2027.

Based on JPMorgan’s 2026 forecasts, Methanex and Lyondell have enterprise-value-to-EBITDA ratios of 3.8 times and 5.8 times, respectively, and free-cash-flow yields of 22.6% and 11.4%. These multiples and yields are based on the bank’s earnings and cash-flow forecasts for that year.
Financial positions differ widely among low-valuation companies: the model forecasts a 2026 net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.4 times for Lyondell and 4.9 times for Olin; Olin’s forecast free-cash-flow yield for the same year is 1.3%.
Among agricultural chemicals companies, Mosaic and FMC have forecast 2026 free-cash-flow yields of negative 4.2% and negative 29.5%, respectively, and net-debt-to-EBITDA ratios of 3.4 times and 6.2 times, respectively.

In packaging, JPMorgan expects Amcor’s EBITDA to rise from 2.184 billion dollars in 2025 to 3.677 billion dollars in 2026, and its net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio to fall from 6.1 times to 3.5 times.
Silgan’s 2027 forecasts show a difference between cash-flow measures: its free-cash-flow yield is 11.0%, while its yield calculated as operating cash flow minus investing cash flow is negative 44.9%; over the same period, its net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio is expected to rise from 2.8 times in 2026 to 4.0 times.
Higher-valued Ecolab has an Overweight rating from JPMorgan. The bank expects its EBITDA to rise from 3.859 billion dollars in 2025 to 4.385 billion dollars in 2026, corresponding to a forecast 2026 enterprise-value-to-EBITDA ratio of 22.4 times.