A-shares rebound on higher turnover: ChiNext Index rises more than 6%, but confirmation of a bottom still depends on staying power

Where was the strength of this rebound evident?

The market rebounded rapidly on Wednesday afternoon, with the ChiNext Index up more than 6%, the STAR 50 Index up nearly 10%, and more than 4600 stocks rising across the market. Solar, precious metals, semiconductor chips and biopharmaceuticals strengthened in succession, while computing-power hardware also rebounded.
Two strength signals watched by the column appeared at the same time: turnover returned above 2 trillion yuan, and the ChiNext Index broke through resistance from moving averages above it. The column likened the rebound after the earlier decline to the release of a spring compressed to its limit.
Sentiment data also improved markedly: the number of stocks hitting their first consecutive daily limit-up rose from 33 to 104, while the rate of stocks advancing from a first to a second consecutive limit-up recovered from 10.53% to 18.18%. However, the longest streak of consecutive limit-ups fell to three trading days, and 10 stocks still hit their daily limit-down.

The column says whether indices can stabilize depends on whether heavyweight technology stocks such as the “Yi Zhong Tian” group attract fresh capital. In the short term, it is watching whether signals such as their recovery on higher volume, increased market turnover and the unwinding of crowded positions in bank dividend stocks can persist.
For a more significant bottom, the column’s condition is that all three major indices hold above their moving averages. If negative factors such as geopolitical conflicts also ease, risk appetite may improve, allowing the market to shift from defense to offense.
The number of stocks hitting their first consecutive daily limit-up is another sentiment indicator watched by the column: yesterday it again exceeded 100, approaching the data pattern it described when the index formed a temporary bottom at the end of July. The question now is whether the figure can stabilize at around 60 to 70, rather than quickly falling back to around 30.

The column says expectations of policy support underpin the rebound in wind, solar and energy-storage stocks and nonferrous metals. China Merchants Securities says a shift in expectations for US new-energy policy could bring a turning point for market development; previously, the market expected US energy-storage growth in 2027 to be flat to slightly higher year on year, with solar broadly flat.
For semiconductors and AI hardware, the column attributes the rebound more to negative news having been exhausted, and views the afternoon surge in Zhongji Innolight as a turning point in trading. It believes the subsequent performance of the “Yi Zhong Tian” group will affect technology stocks, including semiconductors.
The US midterm elections are one of the news catalysts for this market move, but the column says their overall effect is difficult to classify simply as positive or negative. Western Securities and Guosen Securities also warn that data-center power transmission costs, electricity bottlenecks and tighter AI regulation could slow US AI investment.