How have refrigerant exports changed?

  • Customs data show that exports of R32, R134a and R125 rose month on month by 70%, 23% and 26%, respectively, in September. Export restrictions previously caused by geopolitical conflict and higher sea freight rates eased somewhat.
  • Overseas inventories are low, and demand for year-end restocking purchases is strong. Industry Online expects scheduled air-conditioner production to rise year on year by 17.3% and 11.8% in October and November, respectively. Northeast Securities therefore expects refrigerant sales to recover in the fourth quarter.
  • The company’s sales volume had previously been under pressure: refrigerant sales in the third quarter of 2026 were 60.1 thousand tonnes, down 21.0% year on year; prices and spreads continued to rise over the same period. If tensions subsequently ease and shipping returns to normal, delivery of backlogged orders and channel restocking could support an export recovery.

How do quotas and raw-material advantages affect profitability?

  • After two adjustments to HFCs quotas in 2026, the production quotas for R22 and HFCs held by Juhua and its controlled subsidiaries stood at 38.4 thousand tonnes and 293.3 thousand tonnes, respectively, representing 26.30% and 36.65% of the national totals. The company’s in-house supply of raw materials provides an annualized cost advantage of approximately 390 million yuan.
  • The draft 2027 quota plan issued for consultation is unchanged from 2026. Northeast Securities believes that quota-constrained supply, combined with low overseas inventories, leaves room for export prices to rise in 2027. The report also flags risks from quota policy adjustments and weaker-than-expected downstream demand.
  • Northeast Securities forecasts net profit attributable to the parent of 4.48 billion yuan, 6.28 billion yuan and 7.56 billion yuan for 2026–2028, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 18.38%, 40.25% and 20.36%. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are approximately 17, 12 and 10 times, and it assigns a “buy” rating.

How are high-end fluoromaterials and the Gansu project progressing?

  • The company’s 10 thousand-tonne-per-year high-purity PFA facility began production in May 2026. Its metal-ion specifications meet semiconductor-grade requirements, and its output has been used in semiconductor wet processes and the transport of ultra-pure chemicals. The first-phase Juxin coolant facility, with capacity of 1000 tonnes per year, has been completed and is operating, and is ramping up.
  • The first phase of Gansu Juhua involves total investment of 19.625 billion yuan and plans for facilities producing 30 thousand tonnes per year of PTFE, 10 thousand tonnes per year of FEP and a combined 35 thousand tonnes per year of R1234yf. Some basic facilities have entered trial production. Northeast Securities sees higher volumes of high-end materials and project commissioning as medium- to long-term growth drivers.