J.P. Morgan: Goldwind leads in new overseas orders as weak domestic demand weighs on shipment target

Why was the full-year shipment target lowered despite the overseas order breakthrough?

Goldwind ranked first in new orders outside China in the third quarter of 2026; JPMorgan said this was the first time a Chinese manufacturer had achieved that position.
The order advantage has yet to translate fully into deliveries within the year. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have raised logistics costs and delayed project execution, with Saudi shipments of more than 1 gigawatt expected to be pushed back to 2027; meanwhile, lower returns on domestic projects and increased wind curtailment weighed on third-quarter deliveries. The company therefore lowered its full-year 2026 shipment target.

Management maintained its target of more than 8 gigawatts of new overseas orders in 2026 and expects international deliveries to grow by double digits in 2027; the overseas business continues to have a higher gross margin than the domestic business.
The company believes its geographically diversified project pipeline helps support growth. On that basis, JPMorgan believes a greater share of overseas business will be an important support for medium-term earnings and valuation gains; the pace of delivery recovery is affected by Middle East logistics and project execution.

Management said wind turbine gross margins continued to improve and that full-year 2026 guidance of 9%–10% remained broadly unchanged. JPMorgan believes increasingly rational industry competition supports the margin outlook.
Looking ahead to 2027, management expects wind turbine prices to remain stable and costs to fall by 3%–5%; if this combination materializes, domestic wind turbine gross margins will have room to improve further.

JPMorgan cut its 2026–2028 earnings forecasts by 0%–3% and adopted more conservative valuation multiples because of the domestic wind turbine demand cycle. The bank lowered its H-share price target from HK$12 to HK$10, maintaining an overweight rating; it lowered its A-share target from RMB 18 to RMB 15, maintaining a neutral rating.
The bank forecasts 2026 revenue of 80.957 billion yuan, up 11.2% year on year, but adjusted EBITDA of 8.489 billion yuan, down 0.9%; revenue growth is expected to slow to 1.1% in 2027, while adjusted EBITDA growth rebounds to 16.3%.
On cash flow, the bank forecasts 2026 capital expenditure of 16.239 billion yuan, above 7.207 billion yuan in 2025; free cash flow to the firm is expected to widen from negative 2.87 billion yuan in 2025 to negative 6.559 billion yuan, before turning positive at 1.271 billion yuan in 2027.